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Market Pulls Back after Dow Tries Year Highs
By Toni Hansen | Published  11/29/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Pulls Back after Dow Tries Year Highs

Good morning! As folks headed back from the holidays, the change in the upside pace of the market versus the downside intraday was felt harshly out of the open on Monday. On Wednesday the upside slowed down and the market dropped quickly that afternoon. Friday morning also saw a quick decline, followed by an even more gradual retracement off lows into the close. This helped to open the door for more corrective action on the daily charts into the new week.

 

The selling began right out of the open on Monday after a slight upside gap. It picked up speed heading into 10:00 ET as the NASDAQ hit Friday's lows. A very small bear flag took the indices under those lows, breaking last week's intraday uptrend channel. Throughout the morning the NASDAQ had the hardest time. It fell the quickest and continued to make more significant intraday lows into 11:00 ET. At that reversal period we finally started to see a greater intraday correction to the selloff in the NASDAQ, although the SP500 began off 10:30 ET lows.

The pace of the decline, along with the daily extension, led to a slow correction into noon. Volume also declined a bit at this time, creating more of a bearish bias. The Dow saw the best retracement off lows, but the market held the 12:00 ET reversal period very well to kick off an early afternoon return of the bears. This was a bit early for a decent bear flag on the 15 minute charts for a strong break in the morning lows, but the market did a good job trying to until the 13:00 ET reversal period and the morning lows in the Dow slowed the selloff once again. The NASDAQ also hit its 15 minute 200 sma at the same time, so that support helped as well.

The downtrend intraday continued into the close, but the NASDAQ ran out of steam a bit early and held the mid-day lows on its last breakdown of the day out of 15:00 ET. Both the SP500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. made lower lows, although the decline was more gradual overall on the 15 minute charts as compared to the morning action.

Even though this is possibly the start of a larger correction on the daily charts, the slowing in the selling in the afternoon leaves the market open for upside in the morning. This does not yet feel like something that is going to cause a sharp decline on the larger time frames, so I would stick more to the shorter term daytrades for the most part on the short side. There will be exceptions, of course, but still use greater caution for that direction.

Economic Reports and Events
Nov. 29: Durable Orders for Oct. (8:30 am), Consumer Confidence for Nov. (10:00 am), New Home Sales for Oct. (10:00 am)
Nov. 30: Chain Deflator-Prel. for Q3 (8:30 am), GDP-Prel. for Q3 (8:30 am), Chicago PMI for Nov. (10:00 am), Crude Inventories for 11/25 (10:30 am), Fed's Beige Book (2:00 pm)
Dec. 1: Auto and Truck Sales for Nov. (12:00), Initial Claims for 11/26 (8:30 am), Personal Income and Personal Spending for Oct. (8:30 am), Construction Spending for Oct. (10:00 am), ISM Index for Nov. (10:00 am)
Dec. 2: Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payroll, and Unemployment Rate for Nov. (8:30 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Nov. 29: CHS (A), GME (B), SMTC (A), SCMR (B), TIVO (A)
Nov. 30: TIF (B)
Dec. 1: DLM (?), FNSR (A), SYNC (acquired by NOK) (A), NOVL (A), OTVI (A),
Dec. 2: -

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.