CAD/JPY - Canadian dollar bulls remain confined to a large upward sloping channel that dominated the price action since the middle of June, with Loonie longs pushing deeper into the yen held territory. A further move to the upside will most likely see the cross head higher and test the yen defenses around 104.12, a level marked by the 2.00 Fib Extension of the Jun-Nov 2004 CAD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of Canadian dollar longs will most likely see the cross head higher and take on the yen defenses above the psychologically important 105.00 handle at 106.60, a level marked by the 2.236 Fib Extension of the Jun-Nov 2004 CAD rally. Indicators remain in favor of the Canadian dollar traders with both MACD and momentum indicator above the zero line, while overbought oscillators give the Japanese yen bulls a chance to retaliate.
CHF/JPY - Swiss Franc longs once again pushed their luck as they pushed the cross above the psychologically important 90.00 handle, but failed to reach the 91.50, a level marked by the 2005 High. A subsequent reversal from these levels will most likely see the Japanese yen longs launch a counterattack and push the cross below the psychologically important 90.00 handle, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 84.84-91.48 CHF rally. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the yen bulls test the Swiss Franc bids around 88.94, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 84.84-91.48 CHF rally. Indicators remain in favor of the Swiss Franc traders with both MACD and momentum indicator above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/JPY - New Zealand dollar bulls continued to push the cross higher toward the psychologically important 85.00 handle, a level defended by the 1.382 Extension of the Jan- May NZD rally. As Japanese yen bulls launch a counterattack and push the cross lower, the next move to the downside will most likely see the cross test the New Zealand dollar defenses around 81.60, a level established by the 20-day SMA. A further move to the downside will most likely see the cross head toward the psychologically important 80.00 handle and test Kiwi's bids around 80.35, a level reinforced by the 50-day SMA. Indicators signal maturing trend with ADX above the key 25 mark at 40.61, pointing to an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, with both momentum and MACD remain above the zero line, while overbought oscillators add to a trending outlook.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.