While crude oil waffles around between $103 and $100, let's take a look at the big picture. The big picture of crude oil prices (WTI futures) shows the bull move from the December 2008 low at $32.40 into the February 2011 high at $103.41, which represents almost an exact 62% recovery of the entire prior bear market decline from $147.27 hit in July 2008.

Generally speaking, the 62% resistance plateau represents the "final" area of "supply" to thwart a total retracement of the prior decline -- in this case up to $147.27. Right now, nearby crude oil has a high from February 24 at $103.41, and a high from March 2 at $102.94 standing in the way of another potentially powerful upleg.

From a daily chart perspective, only a decline that slices through support between $100 and $97.00 will begin to indicate that the 62% resistance plateau has put a lid on, and repelled, the vertical advance from the Feb pivot low at $83.85.

 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.