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Dollar Loses Control of Price Action
By Jamie Saettele | Published  12/1/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Dollar Loses Control of Price Action

EUR/USD - The Euro continued to consolidate following the inability of the dollar longs to gain momentum below the 1.1700 handle earlier this week, a level defended by the November 28 daily low at 1.1682. However a rejection of the 1.1863, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally, puts both sides at disadvantage as choppy trading conditions continue to persist. Until  a breakout from 1.1863-1.1700 consolidation range, there will be no clear momentum in either direction, but given the failure by the Euro longs to push the pair above 1.1900 and swift retaliation of the greenback bulls the price action continues to have a downward bias. Indicators are diverging with positive momentum indicator above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen continues to edge closer to the psychologically important 120.00 handle as the pair remains in a trend with a move of this magnitude not seen since 2003 continues. A breakout above the 120.00 will most likely see the dollar traders sweep clean the stops hiding above the figure and doing so will add to the upside momentum as a number of buyers entering the market will increase substantially. A further move to the upside will see the pair head higher and challenge yen offers around 120.72, a level marked by the August 1, 2003, and with further move to the upside heading above 121.00 level and aiming for the 121.92, a level marked by the March 24, 2003. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 38.02 signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic adds to the trending outlook.

GBP/USD - British pound remains confined to 1.7048-1.7349 consolidation range as lack of momentum compounded by an increased volatility create extremely choppy trading conditions. The recent price action suggests that both sides are evenly matched, but given the failure by the dollar to break below the psychologically important 1.7000 handle and a subsequent pound rally, which established the range, gives the pound longs a chance to regain some of their lost territory. However as the range trading conditions persist, a break and a close above 1.7390, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally is required for the confirmation that the sterling dominated retrace is underway. However indicators remain in favor of greenback bulls with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc like its European counterparts remains confined to a 1.3000-1.3285 trading range that dominated the price action the entire month of November. As the range bound choppy market conditions persist, only a break of the 1.3039, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3289 USD rally followed by the close below the psychologically important 1.3000 handle will issue a confirmation signal that the Swiss Franc longs are in charge of the price action. However a move above the 1.3244, a level established by the November 22 daily high, followed by the breakout and the close above 1.3289 a 2005 High and the range's upper boundary, will give the dollar traders the confirmation that the momentum to the upside has resumed and the next target of opportunity is 1.3389, a level created by the October 3, 2003 daily high. Indicators remain in favor of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar traders continue to test the greenback bids around 1.1643, a level marked by the October 27 daily low as the price action remains on the side of the Loonie longs following the inability of the US dollar to test the offers around the psychologically important 1.2000 handle. Given the dominance of the sellers in pair, a break below the 1.1643 most likely  see the pair head lower and test the 2005 low at 1.1594, but given the price rejection below 1.1600 and inability by the Canadian dollar to sustain the downside momentum at these levels, a reversal will most likely see the pair head above the 1.1700 handle and target the 50-day SMA at 1.1779. Indicators are favoring of the Canadian dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while extremely oversold Stochastic gives the US dollar bulls a chance to retaliate.

AUD/USD - Australian dollar once again pushed above the .7400 handle as the pair found a temporary support around .7385, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely be limited by the US dollar offers around .7457, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA. A further move to the upside will be most likely hindered by the rejection of the price above .7420 during the Monday's anti-greenback rally and a failure by the Australian dollar to maintain the upside momentum that helped lift the pair from .7265, the most recent 2005 Low. Indicators are diverging with positive momentum indicator above the zero line and negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar continued to struggle as momentum stalled around .7050 level as the pair failed to close above the 200-day SMA. As US dollar bulls continue to keep pair below the .7076, a level established by the 50 Fib of the .7468-6681 USD rally, which is further reinforced by a potential quadruple top and the 200-day SMA, thus giving the greenback longs plenty of ammunition to sell into any volatility spikes as any potential breakouts will most likely become fakeouts as the level once again rejects the price. However a close above .7076 and the subsequent move to the upside will most likely see the Kiwi sustain the momentum of the initial advance and push the pair toward .7122, a September 9 daily low. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives the US dollar bulls a chance to retaliate.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.