Australian House Prices (Q3) (0:30 GMT, 19:30 EST)
Consensus: -0.5% (QoQ); -0.2% (YoY)
Previous: -0.1% (QoQ); -0.1% (YoY)
Outlook: The rate of inflation in Australia's housing prices is expected to slow further to -0.5% in the third quarter. Real estate as an investment option has certainly lost the allure it held in 2003 as lending rates in Australia are uncomfortably high. However, recent housing numbers suggest that investors may be regaining interest in the market. In September, the number of building permits issued increased by 1.8% in contrast to previous losses of as much as 8%. Going forward, the number of building approvals is predicted to increase by 2.5% in October, indicating that the housing market may be regaining some of its strength. If investors' demand meets or exceeds the estimated increase in housing supply, depreciation in home prices should at least move closer to zero as the new year approaches.
Previous: In the second quarter, average house prices in Australia decreased by 0.1%. This depreciation in the months ranging from April to June was triggered by the Australian central bank's decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to a four-year high in March. Since the rate hike, purchasing of second homes as investment vehicles has become as expensive as ever, which has discouraged investors from participating in the real estate market. Companies such as Boral Ltd., Australia's largest seller of building materials, and home-builder Consolidated Properties saw heavy losses in profits in the second quarter. Consolidated's general manager has reported that the company has cut production back by almost half of what it was building last year. Of the country's eight capital cities, Sydney saw the greatest depreciation in housing prices at -3.1%.
UK CIPS Construction PMI (NOV) (9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST)
Consensus: 54.6
Previous: 53.9
Outlook: The purchasing managers' index for November is expected to recover slightly from a drop in October with economists expecting a reading of 54.6. The construction sector may have benefited from a small recovery in the housing market during the month. As seen in August, one positive month would not imply a full recovery in the housing market, but the country may be seeing gradual growth as new approvals are at their highest since July 2004, which is positively affecting sentiments of those in the construction industry. Also, oil prices pulled back from their early October highs, allowing consumers and businesses more room in their budgets to spend on new homes, buildings, additions and improvements, helping out the construction sector as well.
Previous: The CIPS construction purchasing managers' index fell to 53.9 during October, failing to meet expectations of a reading of 57.0. The decline was due mostly to a continually slowing housing market losing activity as well as less civil engineering activity. The British housing market saw a small recovery during September, which was probably spurred by the rate cut in August, but it did not stay through October as the cut in rates failed to keep home buyers' interests. This encouraged developers to refrain from ordering new houses to be built and starting additions and projects until the market recovers. Also, record high oil prices during the month put the breaks on spending in all sectors and discouraged new construction projects.
Canadian Net Change in Employment (NOV) (12:00 GMT, 7:00 EST)
Consensus: 20.0K
Previous: 68.7K
Outlook: It is expected that employment will have again risen during November although not nearly as much as seen during October. Economists are predicting net hiring of 20,000 workers, keeping unemployment at its three-decade low of 6.6 percent reached last month. The economy of Canada is continuing to boom, bumping up to full capacity, causing expectations of another rate hike by the Bank of Canada next Tuesday in attempts to keep growth, reported as an annualized 3.6 percent in the third quarter, from pushing up inflation expectations. Workers across the country are benefiting from this growth as temporary holiday hiring began during November in anticipation of a busy holiday shopping season. Also, companies are able to hire more workers after benefiting from strong profits generated by the greater spending. This is especially true for oil companies who are now rolling in profits after the spike in prices.
Previous: During October, Canadian employers hired more than triple the amount of workers as expected, creating the biggest job gain in two years. During the month, 68,700 workers were hired, led by heavy hiring in retail, wholesale, and financial positions. High oil prices during September and October encouraged oil and energy companies to spend the higher profits on hiring more workers to begin exploration projects such as additional pipelines and excavating the Canadian tar sands. This dropped the overall unemployment rate by 0.1 percent to a 30 year low of 6.6 percent. Strong labor market conditions affirmed the Bank of Canada's opinion that the economy was operating near capacity and therefore putting pressure on inflation. The bank raised rates during September and October to 3.00 percent and, based on this and other strong economic data, it is expected to continue to raising the lending rate.
Change in US Non-Farm Payrolls (NOV) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 210.0K
Previous: 56.0K
Outlook: Economists are optimistic that non-farm payrolls expanded at a healthy pace in November as hiring likely picked up again after two-months of caution. While weekly jobless claims have been higher than expected, they tend not to be a good indicator of NFP performance due to timing issues. What we are seeing is that people are gaining confidence in the economy and have partly put their fears of a dismal fourth quarter behind them. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumped to 98.9 in the month from 85.2. Also the report showed that the percentage of consumers who said jobs were hard to get fell to 23.2 percent this month from 25.3 percent last month; the share that said there is an abundance of jobs increased to 20.8 percent from 20.7 percent in November. October wage information showed annual growth of 2.9 percent while average weekly hours also unexpectedly ticked up to 33.8 in October from 33.7, suggesting more demand for labor even in an environment of rising wages. ISM data for the non-manufacturing sectors of the economy rose more than expected in October to 60.0 from 53.3, which may have encouraged hiring to pick up in that sector in November. All in all, NFP should show a buoyant labor market, which remains supportive of further Fed tightening. The question is whether analyst's high expectations will be met.
Previous: The US economy added just 56,000 jobs in October, less than half the consensus estimate of 120K. However, the blow to the dollar when the news broke was cushioned by an upward revision to September's data from -35,000 to -8,000 released at the same time. Nonetheless, October's figures were weak and got many economists wondering about the state of the US economy in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina-induced higher oil prices and weak consumer confidence. However, there were some bright spots to the employment report. The manufacturing sector showed a net increase of 12,000 jobs, the first positive reading since May. Hourly earnings rose 0.5% versus 0.2% -- the largest increase this year. Additionally, the unemployment rate, which is the measure that is watched more closely by the Fed, fell to 5.0% from 5.1%.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.