It might be the least glamorous sector in the world, yet right now, it also might be the most attractive. The utilities stocks have been one of the pleasant surprises over the last three months, logging a 6% gain while the overall market has been flat. The thing is, that run in the utilities sector looks like it's gaining momentum instead of losing it. Are we poised for more bullishness here? The numbers and the charts say "yes."
If this utilities discussion seems familiar to you, that's because we touched on it just a few weeks ago. In the Sector Spotlight from January 18th, we forecasted that the Dow Jones Utility Index (UTIL) would continue its upside move from 334 to 354 (a 6% move), and maybe even more. So, we weren't surprised to this index hit 363 a few days ago. What we were surprised about was how quickly it happened, and how much momentum developed in the meantime.
In fact, that's the reason we're highlighting the sector again today. These stocks have been steadily chipping away at new highs while other stocks have been floundering, and we expect more of the same. As before, we would never deny that a "big move" for these tame stocks would even compare to a "big move" for any other sector. However, you also want to trade high-probability signals. It's not likely that the Dow Jones Utility Index will break out to 450 with a 25% rally, but it does appear that this chart is aching to go higher by utility stock standards. The bullish volume has been consistent, and we're seeing frequent support at the 20 (blue) and 50 day (purple) moving average lines.
So what's behind this unlikely move? As always, it's earnings. Many of the stocks in the Dow Jones Utility Index are boasting P/Es of 15 or less (which is good even by utilities standards). And more than that, earnings in some cases are growing by triple digits.
We'll set a target of 385 for the next leg of this bull run, which is about a 7% gain. We'll set closing stops on this bias with a close under the current 20 day line, or 355. Be sure to adjust that stop periodically.
Dow Jones Utility Index (UTIL) - Daily
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Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com,