EUR/USD - Euro bulls once again pushed the pair toward the ranges 1.1863, a level marked by the 23. Fib of the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally only to see their efforts wasted following the failure on the part of the single currency longs to gain momentum above the 1.1800 handle. As the pair remains confined to a .1700-1.1863 consolidation range, a push toward the 1.1900 figure will most likely see the prospective greenback longs sell into the single currency rally and push it back down toward 1.1751, a level marked by the 20-day SMA. As greenback longs continue to build a short Euro position and get ready to break below the 1.1700-1.1863 consolidation range, a confirmed break below 1.1639, the most recent 2005 low, will most likely see the pair head lower and test the euro's bids around 1.1546, an October 17, 2003 daily low. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen remains in a trend mode as the pair continues to gather momentum above the 121.00 handle as more dollar traders entered the market following the collapse of the 120.0 figure. As an upward movement remains intact, a sustained momentum to upside the will most likely see the pair head higher and take on the offers around the 121.92, a level marked by the March 24, 2003. A sustained momentum to the upside will most likely see the pair aim for the 123.08, a significant level marked by the 1.50 Fib Extension of the May-July 900 pip USD rally. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 40.28 signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while both overbought RSI and Stochastic add to the trending outlook.
GBP/USD - British pound bulls staged a sharp rally only to see their effort wasted as the pair lost momentum and tumbled back below 1.7390, a 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. As greenback longs push the pair back into the range, their next move to the downside will most likely see the pair collapse toward the 1.7249, a level established by the December 2 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the dollar traders push the pair lower and test the bids around 1.7139, a level established by the November 16 daily low, and with subsequent breakdown seeing the pound bulls scramble as the pair collapses toward the 1.7048, the most recent 2005 low and a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.7000 handle. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc traders once again decided to flex their muscles and pushed the pair lower only to encounter active bids around 1.3040, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A repeated failure on the part of Swissie longs to retake the psychologically important 1.3000 handle signals that the next move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and aim for the Swissie offers around 1.3237, a level established by the November 28 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and break above the 1.3000-1.3285 trading range that dominated the price action the beginning of November. A sustained momentum following the break will most likely see the pair head higher and aim for the offers around 1.3389, a level created by the October 3, 2003 daily high, thus opening the psychologically important 1.3500 handle as a target of opportunity. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar remains the strongest of the majors as the pair broke below the 1.1600 handle and took out the previous 2005 Low at 1.1588. A further move to the downside will most likely see the Loonie longs pushing below the psychologically important 1.1500 handle and aim for the bids around 1.1406, a level established by the 50.0 Fib Extension of the May-Oct CAD rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see the Canadian dollar head for the multi year lows and test the greenback bids around 1.1272, a level created by the 61.8 Fib Extension of the May-Oct CAD rally. Indicators are favoring of the Canadian dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while oversold both Stochastic and RSI give the US dollar bulls a chance to retaliate.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar managed to push the pair above the psychologically important .7500 handle and sweep clean the US dollar offers around .7515, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely encounter large number of the greenback offers around .7574, a level established by the key 61.8 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally. A reversal from these levels will most likely see the US dollar longs push the pair below the .7500 figure and push the pair toward .7455, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally. A further move on the part of the greenback traders will most likely see the pair head below .7400 figure and test the Aussie bids around .7383, a level marked by 23.6 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally. Indicators are diverging with positive momentum indicator above the zero line and negative MACD below the zero line, while ADX is above 25 at 25.80 signaling trending conditions, with neutral oscillators giving either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar traders grew bolder as they pushed the pair above the .7100 figure only to see their momentum dissipate as the movement stalled around .7168, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the .7468-6681 USD rally. As the pair continues to exhibit exhaustion price action, a subsequent reversal from these levels will most likely see the US dollar traders push the pair below the .7100 figure and test the bids around .7077, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the .7468-6681 USD rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair tumble further and head below the psychologically important .7000 handle, and test Kiwi's bids around .6984, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally. Indicators are supporting the New Zealand dollar longs with both the momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 26.56 signals an existence of a trend, not a direction of one with overbought oscillators adding to the trending outlook given by indicators.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.