My cycle work on the S&P 500 shows that Monday was day 67 in the 70-75 trading cycle (low to low), with my Dual Cycle low (20-25 day and 70-75 day) due to bottom together between June 27 and July 6.

If the dual cycle bottoms "on time," then we are now in the final week or so prior to a significant low and subsequent upside reversal that identifies a significant technical directional change.

While it it very tempting to cover any and all short or counter-trend positions, let's remind ourselves that the final few days into a cycle bottom often are characterized by acute negativity.

My sense is that this dual cycle low could exhibit such a scenario, which will press the SPX below its 200 DMA, now at 1259.77, beneath the Mar 16 low at 1249.05, towards a test of its Mar 2009 up trendline in the vicinity of 1293/45.

Only a sustained rally above 1293/95 will begin to argue that perhaps an early cycle low has been established.

 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.