For all of the trepidation about a Greek default, and the possible dis-integration of the euro, it appears to still have the upper hand in its relationship with the dollar.

Perhaps Chairman Bernanke would not want it any other way at the moment?

One thing is for sure that in terms of the impact on EUR/USD, this year's version of the Greek sovereign debt crisis is dwarfed by what happened during the initial crisis in 2010. Perhaps favorable European interest rate differentials with the United States, coupled with the impact of immense liquidity provided by the Central Banks in general and the Fed in particular during the past 12 months, have mitigated potential damage to the euro despite an existential crisis this time around.

In any event, purely from a big picture perspective, all of the action in EUR/USD since its May 4 high at 1.4940/45 exhibits the form of a high-level bullish coil pattern, which if accurate and when completed should resolve in a thrust to the upside that propels EUR/USD to 1.5100-1.5300 thereafter -- and the CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) with it.

Only a decline that breaks 1.4100-1.4040 will invalidate the still-developing bullish set-up.

 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.