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Forex Economic Alerts for December 7
By John Kicklighter | Published  12/6/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for December 7
  1. Australian GDP
  2. Japan's Leading Economic Index
  3. Swiss Unemployment Rate
  4. RBNZ Rate Decision
  5. Australian Employment Change

Australian GDP (QoQ) (3Q) (0:30 GMT, 19:30 EST - Tonight)
Consensus: 0.5%
Previous: 1.3%

Outlook: The Australian gross domestic product is expected to grow by 0.5 percent in the third quarter, bringing annual growth to 2.7 percent. This is a slowdown in growth from that seen in the second quarter, which is seen as something of an abnormality - if not for this quarter, annual GDP most likely would have grown less than 2 percent. The housing market is slowing drastically and retail sales are dim as soaring oil prices and four-year high interest rates weigh on consumers' purchasing decisions. Overall business investment was not nearly as high during the third quarter as in the second with companies running down inventories as consumer spending slowed. The lumber market has also taken a huge hit as volume and prices declined drastically in response to the slowing housing market. The only saving grace is the mining industry, which continues to profit from growing demand, especially from China, and invest in expanding extraction capabilities to meet the demand for exports. This lackluster GDP growth is lower than the 3.5 percent level that the Australian economy is accustomed to, a fact that will most likely cause the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its interest rate target stagnant at 5.5 percent in its meeting tomorrow.

Previous: In the second quarter, the Australian economy grew faster than expected - the fastest since 2003, by 1.3 percent from the prior quarter and 2.6 percent from the same quarter of last year. As housing and consumer spending began to slow in the quarter in response to unchanging high interest rates and a heavy increase in oil prices over the first part of the year, economic growth was being fueled by business investment and heavy demand for exports. The largest force of growth for GDP during the second quarter was the mining sector. Australia houses a number of very large mining companies all of which began initiating investment plans in order to expand their extraction capacity - especially of coal, iron ore, and copper - in order to meeting the accelerating demand from China. Meanwhile, demand for exports of these commodities and others make up almost 60 percent of Australia's export earnings.

Japan's Leading Economic Index (OCT P) (5:00 GMT, 0:00 EST)
Consensus: 80.0%
Previous: 45.5%

Outlook: The leading indicator index for Japan's economy is expected to make a strong gain to 80.0% in October, suggesting economic growth will be positive about six months from now. The optimistic reading follows a sorely negative reading in September, which took a big hit from waning Japanese consumer confidence. Economic releases in the past month give some indication as to which direction some of the sub-indexes are likely heading for October. For one, the consumer confidence index in Japan rose from 45.5 to 47.9 in October, suggesting that overall sentiment about the economy is improving. Preliminary shipment figures show that the volume of shipments in Japan increased by 1.7%, up from -0.8% the previous month. As such, the consumer durable shipments sub-indicator is likely to be positive again in October. Housing starts in Japan have gained a strong 9.1% on the year, supporting the case that the floor area/housing start sub-indicator is also likely to issue a positive reading.

Previous: In September, Japan's leading economic indicator fell to 45.5%. The index value below 50 indicates that economic contraction is expected six months from when the indicator is released. Just a month earlier, the leading economic indicator stood at 100%, with each of the twelve sub-indices issuing a positive outlook on Japan's economy. In contrast, only five of the twelve sub-indices were positive in September, including housing starts, consumer durable shipments, Nikkei commodity prices, interest rate spread, and change in the Topix stock index over the past year. Most noteworthy is the fact that September marked the first time in six months that consumer sentiment in Japan has been negative. The negative sentiment revealed Japanese consumers' sharp reaction to record-high oil prices at the end of August. Additionally, the weight high energy prices placed on manufacturing costs forced companies to scale back on production and hiring, which generated negative readings in various production and employment sub-indicators as well.

Swiss Unemployment Rate (NOV) (6:45 GMT, 1:45 EST)
Consensus: 3.7%
Previous: 3.7%

Outlook: The Swiss unemployment rate is expected to go unchanged for the month of November, with 3.7% of the population estimated to remain unemployed. For the past nine months, the unemployment rate has remained steady between 3.7% and 3.9%. Without drastically increasing the level of employment, however, the Swiss economy has continued to expand through higher capacity utilization. In effect, company managers have made better use of available resources and labor. As the economy continues to grow, however, economists predict that the rate of employment may begin to make significant gains by the middle of next year, which could spark inflationary pressures if the Swiss economy is already operating near capacity by that time.

Previous: In October, Switzerland's unemployment rate registered at 3.7%, down from 3.8% the previous month. The slight rise in employment, however, did not trigger any inflationary pressure as the Swiss economy still has room to increase production. Steady employment in Switzerland has been a major factor in the country's continued economic expansion. Confident in the stability of the nation's employment conditions, consumers have been spending heavily, encouraging growth in GDP. In October, 144,066 people were without jobs. 85,364 of these people were Swiss citizens and the remainder unemployed were non-Swiss.

RBNZ Rate Decision (December 7) (20:00 GMT, 15:00 EST)
Consensus: 7.25%
Previous: 7.00%

Outlook: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points again in their December meeting to bring the Official Cash Rate to 7.25 percent. After October's rate hike, Reserve Bank Governor assured markets that “the prospect of further tightening may only be ruled out once a noticeable moderation in housing and consumer spending is observed.” This essentially means that a quarter-point hike at this meeting is a definite. However, looking at the latest batch of data, this monetary tightening may not continue for too much longer. Retail sales actually took a sizeable dip in September with a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 percent after the summer automobile-buying binge ended. Meanwhile, home sales also slowed in October with a decline to 8,513 from the 9,186 seen in September data. In addition, the other sectors of the economy are continuing to suffer as they've done since the first rate hike in March. The ANZ Business PMI moved below the 50-point growth threshold to 49.6 from 52.3 in September. Meanwhile, the NBNZ Business Outlook Index hit a 17-year low of -66.2 in November. Clearly, the continuation of these trends will force the RBNZ to reevaluate their strategy in the coming months.

Previous: The RBNZ increased the OCR by 25 basis points to 7.00 percent in their October meeting. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard cited a whole host of reasons for medium term inflation risk to be on the upside. These included the real estate market, private consumption, oil prices along with their impact inflation expectations, and increased government spending. Evidently, not enough contractionary effects were seen after the last rate hike took place in March. Businesses have reacted somewhat as evidenced by the net change in the NBNZ Business Outlook index from -19.9 in March to -54.9 in October. Likewise, the kiwi and trade balance had also felt the impact with NZDUSD staying elevated as the US dollar gained ground against most other currencies. Consequently the trade deficit between March and October of this year was nearly 80% greater than the deficit seen in the same eight months of 2004. However, CPI still pushed its way past the Bank's upper limit of 3.0 percent to a whopping 3.4 percent in September. Since unrelenting consumer spending and growth in the housing and mortgage markets continue to pose dangers to price stability, the RBNZ will not rule out further tightening until these risks are contained.

Australian Employment Change (NOV) (0:30 GMT, 19:30 EST)
Consensus: 15,000
Previous: -19,800

Outlook: Australian employment is expected to have gained 15,000 jobs during November after a large unexpected drop the month before. This would leave the overall unemployment rate at a seven month high of 5.2 percent. Despite this predicted rebound in the job market after two months of declines (an occurrence not seen since June and July 2003), economists do not believe that the softening of the labor market is over. This rise in jobs was probably fueled by hiring in the marketing and engineering industries as well as across the mining sector as these companies continue to expand in order to meet accelerating demand. During November, job advertisements, on the Internet especially, rose from October, which hopeful indicates that Australian employment will see at least small increases through the first quarter of next year. However employment in the banking and transportation industries saw a drop during the month. This should keep the labor market fluctuating yet dampening for the time being.

Previous: Employment in Australia dropped unexpectedly during October with full-time jobs falling 60,800, the most in 14 years since the recession of 1991. The economy lost 19,800 jobs during the month in the second monthly decline despite a prediction of a 15,000-job gain. The overall jobless rate rose by 0.1 percent to a seven month high of 5.2 percent. Part-time positions did rise during the month by 41,000. With the economy of the country slowing and record oil prices pressuring budgets, companies were forced to streamline, cutting full-time employees to cut costs. These cuts will most likely further curb consumer spending as well.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.