This morning's crude oil inventory report showed a bigger than expected drawdown of 3.96 million barrels compared to expectations of 2 million barrels. Let's notice that although NYMEX oil remains up for the third consecutive session, today's high at 90.23 has not exceeded yesterday's high of 90.48 -- despite the bullish inventory news.

That's the first warning signal that the 8.8% climb in oil prices since Tuesday morning is stalling.

That said, at this juncture, only a decline that breaks and sustains beneath 88.60 will trigger initial sell signals that indicate the upmove from 83.20 is complete and that the dominant downtrend in oil -- and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) -- is reasserting itself.

 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.