EUR/USD - Euro launched a deceive countermove against the dollar longs as the pair climbed above the 1.1863, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1644 USD rally, and with sustained momentum is taking on the offers around 1.1885, a 50-day SMA. In case the euro traders manage to close the pair above the 1.1863, it would serve as confirmation that the price action has become euro positive and the next move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test the dollar offers around 1.1923, a level established by the October 24 daily low. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair reach the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally and most likely consolidate the gains made by the euro traders. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen continues to tread sideways after the dollar bulls pushed the pair back above the psychologically important 120.00 handle, only to encounter active offers below the 121.00 figure. As yen longs gear up for the move below the 120.00 level, a further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and test the greenback bids around 119.72, a 20-day SMA, which currently acts as a buffer zone for 119.24, a level established by the November 30 daily low. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the USD/JPY heads lower with the pair taking on the 118.35, a level created by the November 28 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and test the bids around 117.36, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-121.44 JPY rally and is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 declining to 37.38 signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic gives the yen longs a chance to retrace part of the rally.
GBP/USD - British pound proved to be stronger than initially suspected as the pair headed above the 1.7600 figure, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally, thus seeing the GBP/USD begin to gain the upside momentum. As the price action continues to favor the sterling longs, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test the greenback offers around 1.7772, a level marked by the 50.0 of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. However any further move to the upside will most likely see the dollar traders' offer out the pair around 1.7850-1.7900 zone, thus seeing the upside momentum wane into nothingness with the pair tumbling back down toward the psychologically important 1.7500 handle. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls managed to push the pair further below the psychologically important 1.3000 handle, a level further reinforced by the 50-day SMA following the collapse of the greenback bids, which supported the pair for the past week. Following the break to the downside, a further move on the part of the Swissie traders will most likely see the pair test the dollar bids around 1.2888, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the Swissie longs will most likely see the pair head lower and take on the 1.2765, a support established by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally, with further break to the downside seeing the pair stall around 1.2641, a level established by the key 61.8 Fib of the .2240-1.3285 USD rally. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls once again slowly pushed the pair to the downside as the overall price action continues to favor the Loonie following the inability by the greenback traders to keep the pair above the 1.1600 handle. As the pair remains trapped within a narrow consolidation range, a reversal from these levels will most see the US dollar traders increase their bids and once again try to push the pair above the 1.1600 handle. A successful move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test the Loonie bids around 1.1686, a level marked by the October 12 daily low. A break above will most likely see the pair head above the 20-day SMA at 1.1700, and with upside momentum intact taking on the offers around 50-day SMA at 1.1761. Indicators are favoring of the Canadian dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while both oversold Stochastic and RSI give the US dollar bulls a chance to retaliate.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar traders managed to scoop up the US dollar offers above the psychologically important .7500 handle at .7516, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally as they pushed the AUD/USD higher. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair test the offers around .7575, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally. A sustained momentum to the upside will most likely see the greenback longs give up further ground and retreat above the .7600 handle, a level defended by the 200-day SMA at .7608. Indicators are favoring the Aussie longs with both momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives the US dollar trader a chance to further retrace the Aussie rally.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar traders shrugged off the earlier weakness in the pair as they managed to regain the psychologically important .7000 handle along with a number of key levels. As the pair heads higher, a critical confirmation would be a close above the .7075, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally, with a confirmed breakout seeing the Kiwi traders fully retracing the last week's sharp correction. As a move above the .7100 figure will most likely see the New Zealand dollar bulls make their way toward .7122, a level marked by the September 5 daily high, with a further move to the upside most likely seeing the pair head toward .7167, level created by the 50.0 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally. Indicators are supporting the New Zealand dollar longs with both the momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.