So far my target window for a significant low in nearby copper prices in the 3.10-3.06 area is looking pretty accurate. That said, before we run out and load up on copper, it would behoove us to realize that despite holding right in my optimal target zone, the price structure has not yet been able to stage any sort of meaningful rally.

This is a very disconcerting sign, and warns us that it might be prudent to watch copper for a while longer prior to entering the long side. In fact, lack of any buying activity might be telling us that copper still has some unfinished business on the downside.

If that proves to be the case, where could it go? A sustained break below 3.0700 will point nearby copper to 2.9800-2.9200 thereafter.

 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.