The overall picture that is developing on the daily 10-year T-Note Yield chart has the right look of an expanding, rounded base pattern that is consolidating above its initial lower base area between 1.70% and 2.10%. Let's notice that my 14 & 30 day EMA's have crossed to the upside while on the rise, which usually is a very bullish juxtaposition for an MA cross.

Since last Wednesday's confirmed yield rally high at 2.27%, yield has pulled back to initial support at 2.12%-2.10%, which so far has contained the pressure. This now represents the initial "turn window" for yield.

That said, should yield otherwise violate and sustain below 2.08%, I will be looking for weakness into a second "turn window" at 2.00%-1.97% thereafter prior to the resumption of the new bull phase off of the Sep-Oct lows.

Based on my yield work, and the increasing likelihood that Bernanke's speech will propel the stock indices higher initially, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) points lower into the 20.20-19.80 target zone prior to my expectation of a resumption of strength.

 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.