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Daily Reckoning for December 13
By Bill Bonner | Published  12/13/2005 | Stocks | Unrated
Daily Reckoning for December 13

We pick up where we left off yesterday: in the middle of a street in Argentina. What we were doing in the middle of the street instead of in the notary's office is a story in itself.

Like other countries, Argentina has laws against doing things simply and inexpensively. Foreigners need good advice. Otherwise, they're almost sure to get into trouble. Fortunately, we hired one of the top lawyers in the country. He was taking us from the bank to the stock exchange so we could sign papers to get money where it was supposed to go. The whole transaction took hours, and almost cost the seller his life. And then, when the cash finally ended up in the right hands, another problem presented itself. What were they to do with it? By then, the banks were closed.

"We can't walk around with that kind of money in our pants' pockets," said Señor Rodriguez.

"What do you care?" answered Luis. "It's a bank draft. If someone steals it, we'll give you another one."

"Uh...OK."

The whole extended Rodriguez family had come to Buenos Aires for the occasion. The ranch had been in the family for more than half a century.

"I remember when I bought the place," said the old man who had bought the place, Señor Rodriguez's father. "There wasn't even a road. You had to go up there on horses. But now there's a nice dirt road. You can drive into town; it only takes a couple of hours. People have gotten so soft. They can't believe how hard it was in my day."

"Be quiet, Papa. We're doing something serious now," said one of his daughters.

"Well, this is serious. I'm telling this young man (we looked around, wondering whom he was talking about) what it was like up there. He might change his mind. You know, it's very high and very cold. We always had cattle in the upper valley. In the winter, we would ride up and drive them down to one of the lower valleys, but there's a little river and even though it was frozen solid, they don't like to cross. So, we had to throw dirt on it to get them across. It's hard up there."

"Well, that's just it, Papa. We don't want him to change his mind."

By this time, your editor's instruction in Spanish was stretched to the breaking point. He had been informed about Spanish verbs in subjunctive mood, but he was never quite sure when one turned up. Nor was he sure that many of the words he was hearing were actually Spanish at all. Many sounded like gibberish.

"Ah, you know...they don't really speak Spanish," explained our lawyer. "Well, of course it is Spanish, but it is definitely not Castilian Spanish. It's not exactly the language you're learning in London. It's Argentine Spanish, and these people have a strong accent from the northwest. I'm surprised you understand any of it."

We probably imagined more than we understood. Still, the conversations that we imagined we had were interesting. The people we met, who will be our new neighbors (only two hours away!), were "muy simpatico." And when the signing ceremony was finally completed, the men hugged your editor firmly, the women kissed him, and then, the family went out the door.

We could hear them laughing as they went down the elevator.

*** A new A.T. Kearney study reports that 54 percent of executives say they are planning to increase foreign investment spending this year. That's the largest number since 2000. "Global executives are more eager to commit FDI in China, India and Eastern Europe than at any time since 1998," says the report.

No one is making out better than our friends in the Far East. China and India are increasingly seen as sources of innovation and attractive research and development locations, according to the study.

For the fourth year running, China is the most preferred FDI location world wide, and for the first time, India became the second most likely FDI destination, pushing the United States back to third. Soon, India may leap ahead of China for that coveted number one spot.

"Things could just keep getting better for India," our resident India expert, Sala Kannan says. And Sala should know. She has been researching what she calls "India's $200 Billion Secret" for the past year. This secret, once it's revealed will cause thousands of jobs to be created. Billions in new taxes will pour into India. Billions more will trickle down into India's health care, auto and infrastructure sectors.

Sala tells us that early investors - who are invested in the companies likely to see these new profits - could walk away with several times their money.

*** We are quite the record-breakers, dear reader...last month, the U.S. budget deficit increased 43 percent, to $83.1 billion - the largest November deficit on record.

As we pointed out yesterday, the American Debt Clock is ticking - totaling over $26,000 per citizen. Good thing no one is actually paying that debt back - today, FOMC announced that they raised the benchmark federal funds target rate by a quarter-percentage point...and those with consumer, business or the dreaded ARM loans are going to be facing higher interest rates.

The rate hike comes as no surprise to anyone, and the committee signaled
further rate hikes in months to come to keep inflationary pressures at bay.

According to the Fed, inflation is the biggest threat to the America's economic outlook, since the economy "has essentially shrugged off the impact of the hurricanes."

Hmmm...following Hurricane Katrina, the U.S. House of Representatives passed four tax-cutting bills, which eliminated $94.5 billion in revenue from the federal budget. The total cost of rebuilding in the Gulf exceeds twice the total spending cuts approved last month.

"Of course, voters like it when politicians cut taxes," says Addison. "But from a financial standpoint, it's pointless if you're increasing spending at the same time."

Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing.  For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.