1. UK Claimant Count
2. US Trade Balance

UK Claimant Count (NOV) (9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST)
Consensus: 8.0K
Previous:  12.1K

Outlook: Unemployment in the UK is expected to rise yet again in November by 8,000, which would bring total unemployment to 898,100. Job vacancies only grew by an estimated 300 between September and October while the number remains 57,700 lower than in October 2004. Gloomy conditions in several of the UK's economic sectors are keeps the labor market weak. For now, the claimant rate is expected to remain at 2.8 percent. Meanwhile, average earnings growth rates are expected to fall to 3.9 percent for both the excluding and including bonus measures. Although this current negative trend in the labor market is not significant enough to make any sweeping statements regarding a large impact on economic growth, it would be reasonable to say that dismal employment conditions could keep growth contained going into 2006.

Previous: The UK unemployment claims count rose by 12,100 in October, a far greater increase than the expected amount of 5,000. This was the ninth consecutive rise since the total count hit a recent low of 813,800 in this past January. Clearly, the UK labor market is still struggling as consumer demand is failing to keep corporate profits afloat. Industry surveys show that both the retail and manufacturing sectors are still suffering as they are unable to muster a recovery. This is leading to payroll cuts in the affected industries. Evidently, conditions are not expected to improve anytime soon as the level of job vacancies also remains low. To make things worse, constrained corporate income statements are also keeping wage growth low. Average earnings excluding bonuses grew at an unchanged annual pace of 4.0 percent in October as growth in average earnings including bonuses decreased to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent. As purchasing power growth declines, a sustained recovery in consumer demand seems even less likely for the near future.

US Trade Balance (OCT) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: -$62.8B
Previous:  -$66.1B

Outlook: October's US trade deficit is expected to contract from September's $66.1 billion. Although historic crude oil imports show that volume generally ticks up after receding in September, prices have also receded in October of this year, which means that the overall impact on the trade balance could remain relatively unchanged from last month. In addition, the end of the Boeing strike on September 30th probably indicates that civilian aircraft exports were back up in October as the plane manufacturer worked off the backlogs that accumulated during the four-week strike. The recent dollar rally also took a pause in October after the greenback had gained about 5% against the other majors in September. In total, these factors should bring October's trade balance within close proximity of the $62.8 billion median economist expectation.

Previous: The US trade deficit rose by more than expected to a record $66.1 billion in September as imports rose by 2.4 percent while exports dropped by 2.6 percent in the month. The surge in imports was, understandably, from energy products. What is slightly surprising is that crude oil imports actually dropped in the month. Although the average price of imported crude oil rose by 8.9 percent, the volume imported actually dropped by 14.5 percent, which created an overall fall. The main driver of import growth in the month was actually natural gas. Meanwhile, the dramatic drop in exports, which was the largest seen in four years, was almost entirely due to the $2.4 billion decrease in civilian aircraft exports caused by the Boeing strike. This left the goods deficit at $71.1 billion, up from $64.1 billion in August. Although this surprise did end up being a negative effect on third quarter GDP revisions, the growth rate was till revised up to 4.3 percent based on positive revisions in other areas such as private investments and inventories.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.