Energies
A break to fresh highs across the board in energies this week came on worse than anticipated declines in distillate stocks.  The market widely shrugged off the hike in production from OPEC and continued supply threats from the Saudis.  With everyone touting $80 plus crude and no help in site who could be bearish energies?  Me!  And you should be too.  If there was ever a time to be a contrarian it is in energies and it is right now.  Although I must admit I about fell out of my chair when the crux of Bush's energy conservation speech amounted to a plea to have everyone shift to LCD monitors for their computers.  Who knew computer monitor energy consumption was causing the energy crisis!

Financials
The S&P sold off this week on GM concerns and a shifting in the S&P 500 allocation model.  Look for a bounce Monday and a great opportunity to get short by Tuesday.  Support at 1188.25 was the last line of defense for the technical bulls.  Bonds are hovering, and while 106 is the next target, 112 is the most likely retracement point.  Next week's FOMC meeting shouldn't give the statement revision everyone is hoping for, but the market should still head south with a plethora of economic data coming as well.  Bond strangle all the way on Monday at the close.  The dollar is bouncing, but 8365 is critical to make it legit.  I remain a dollar bull all the way.  The Canadian is showing strong signs of supportive action, but the gut says a major fallout is right around the corner if the US dollar makes another leg up.  The Canadian will have to play catch-up.

Grains
Volatility spiked this week as rumors circulated that the grain rally was mainly due to hedge fund money.  I had to laugh at this one.  Specs are specs - hedge fund or otherwise.  The market plunged to significant value and the market ate it up.  Throw in some favorable weather in South America, good export data and rust concerns and you have a decent bounce on your hands.  This was not a hedge fund.  The dip in price the last few days is a good confirmation that the run is at or near its completion for the next couple of months.  Pull your longs and get short - beans to $6. 

Meats
Cattle began its descent this week as the bears kicked it up a notch.  I remain a dire bear and see sub 80 pricing right around the corner.  Hogs and bellies look bearish as well.

Metals
Weakness in the metals complex to end the week came on dollar strength, but until the dollar breaks 8365 or the unexpected 8050 I wouldn't pay attention.  Start building some bear positions in gold and silver and go all in on a US dollar break through 8365.  Palladium remains a breakout buy despite this week's action. 

Softs
OJ offered some strength today after a week of inside action after the recent spike on crop data.  It sure looks like a bull flag at this point but I remain at 50%.  Coffee is falling apart on declining volume and volatility.  This is not the bear break I was looking for and thus I remain a cautious trader until something better unfolds here.  Cocoa volatility continued to gain momentum as political unrest in the Ivory Coast is the main event.  My earlier estimates may be a bit off and a run to 2000 before a bear break is not out of the question.  Cotton is falling apart as I expected - just a little later than I had hoped.  New lows are still in the forecast.  Sugar had a nice bear technical day today, and I continue to recommend puts here.  Lumber is all over the map - still a bear.

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James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.