- SNB Libor Rate Decision
- UK Retail Sales
- US Consumer Price Index
- US Net Foreign Security Purchases
SNB Libor Rate Decision (08:30 GMT, 03:30 EST)
Consensus: 1.00%
Previous: 0.75%
Outlook: Fresh comments from government officials have added further weight to an already anticipated increase in Switzerland's benchmark lending rate. The countries Economic Minister, Joseph Deiss, said in a statement given to the World Trade Organization that the previous government's estimate of 1.7 economic expansion for the coming year may be conservative. Deiss state that a rate of “1.8 percent, maybe 2.0 percent” is more than possible with the exports and consumer spending picking up. Domestic spending, which has generally taken a back seat to exports, has begun contribute more heavily to the $360 billion economy. The low unemployment rate is largely responsible for this turn of events. The jobless rate, which has held at 3.8 percent for the first three quarters of the year, dipped to 3.7 percent in October and November. In addition to the domestic market heating up, foreign sales of Swiss goods are providing the brunt of the economies drive. An 11 percent slide in the Franc against the benchmark US dollar has made Swiss goods more attractive on the global market. Coincidentally, the European Union, consumer of 60 percent of Swiss exports, is in the throws of rebounding growth and confidence. The union's largest member economy, Germany, reported investor confidence at its highest level in 12 years. Foreign demand has already proven beneficial to the country in recent indicators. Manufacturing in November grew at its fastest pace in over a year, while the leading economic indicators measure and third quarter growth of 1 percent were both at their fastest pace in 5 years. An increase seems almost certain; leaving hints to future policy shifts the true mystery of the meeting.
UK Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV) (09:30 GMT, 04:30 EST)
Consensus: 1.3%
Previous: 1.5%
Outlook: Sales at British retailers are expected to have grown slightly over the month of November while the annual measure is predicted to fall. Sales have slowed significantly over the past year on the back of soaring oil prices, a plateauing housing market and a burgeoning unemployment rate. The attack to British consumer's income has been thorough even into November. Crude oil and gasoline prices dropped significantly from all-time highs set in late August into the beginning of September, but remain considerably higher than the cost for both necessary goods a year ago. Further eroding disposable incomes was the lost source of equity from the decade-long housing boom that has been a significant contributor to the previously strong rate of growth over the past years. Other indicators are suggesting an even worse performance for retail sales in November. Consumer confidence for the period was unchanged at a two and a half year low, while unemployment has risen for nine consecutive months. Additionally, a parallel measure to the government released retail sales, the British Retail Consortium report of retailers reporting slowing sales to those recording an increase; fell at its fastest pace in nearly 22 years in November. At its current pace, the economy is set to have grown 1.7 percent - the slowest pace in 13 years. If domestic consumption is unable to pick up some of the slack the economy is feeling, the Bank of England will have more scope at coming monetary policy meetings to further cut the overnight lending rates to stimulate spending and investment.
Previous: A strong rebound in the annual pace of retail sales may have been do more to artificial means, than an actual recovery in the market. Sales in Europe's second largest economy jumped 1.5 percent on an annual basis from a nine year low 0.7 percent in September. Other indicators however make this indicator an anomaly. Over the same period, both nationwide and the Gfk measures of consumer confidence plunged to 18 month lows. Burgeoning unemployment was also relieving consumers of income further compounding their already stingy spending habits. A more realistic view of sales positions comes from government data that reveals the value of third quarter sales rose only 0.2 percent for the year, marking the slowest pace in nearly 60 years. The most likely explanation for the month's unexpected increase for November retail sales comes from retailers themselves. Businesses, in an effort to draw shoppers into stores during the peak spending period over the final quarter, have lured potential customers with discounted merchandise to move stale inventory.
US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) (13:30GMT, 08:30 EST)
Consensus: 3.6%
Previous: 4.3%
Outlook: If price November price growth meets economists' forecasts, the annual pace would see its biggest drop in nearly 20 years. Expectations of 3.6 percent growth from November of 2004 is largely being suggested as further drops in the retail price of gasoline relieves the indicator of one of the key contributors to its momentous rise in the second and third quarters. While the price of crude oil edged lower in the month of November, gasoline prices followed suit with a 17 percent decline improving consumers' purchasing power. This dramatic deceleration in prices could be the turning point for Fed monetary policy officials to finally change their aggressive hawk stance that has translated to 12 consecutive 25-basis-point-hikes since June of last year. A cautious eye should be cast however to second-round effects from energy commodities initial increase. Previously companies have been concerned that consumer spending could not sustain a pass through of costs which they incurred with energy prices on the rise. Now gas prices have abated and consumers are becoming more confidence, managers and business leaders may deem this the perfect moment to been a retroactive policy of slowly passing on their costs through product prices to salvage revenues by the end of the year.
Previous: The government's standard measure of price growth, the Consumer Price Inflation indicator, fell for the first time in five months. A monthly measure of the indicator rose a moderate 0.2 percent in October, while the same measure for the period from a year ago rose 4.3 percent. Even though the indicator remains higher on an annual basis, it is a marked improvement from September's recent record reading's of 1.2 percent monthly and 4.7 percent on the year. Pacing the slower pace for the month were lower prices for gasoline and consumer goods. Gasoline prices fell 4.5 percent for the period for the largest decline in 14 months. Goods such as clothing, computers and tobacco were also on the dive. Rampant optimism over the decline was on the hold however when further components were measured. Prices of natural gas rose experienced their biggest rise nearly 5 years. Services prices were also adding to inflation. Accounting for nearly a third of the index, housing prices also rose the most in nearly five years with a 0.9 percent increase. Overall, service prices rose 0.7 percent for the period.
US Net Foreign Security Purchases (OCT) (14:00GMT; 09:00 EST)
Consensus: $75.0B
Previous: $101.9B
Outlook: Foreigners are expected to throttle back on holdings of U.S. assets in October, following the record increase witnessed in September. Factors for the strong increase for September remained present in October; but fears following the damage caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on the economies impressive pace of growth, likely turned investors off of the country's securities. The full damage caused by both hurricanes, which struck in August and September, could not be assessed; but panic among risk adverse investors likely took control. Fear in the United States broad S&P 500 equity index fell to its lowest level since May as the investing community worried over the potential effects to sales. In foresight, this move would seem without merit since the economy has bounced back healthily and the Fed has continued on its hawkish policy at the benefit of treasury and corporate debt assets. None the less, the reduction in confidence is worrisome as the economy has been dependant on this trade measure to offset the broadening trade gap that otherwise would put the economy in the red. The recent trade deficit is of particular concern. If the TICS doesn't pick up the slack, incoming Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will have to put more consideration to the ever looming trade deficit and may have to also look to the money market for support in the form of a more dovish policy for the benchmark lending rate.
Previous: Foreign holdings in U.S. assets rose by a record $101.9 billion in September, more than enough to offset the increasingly worrisome trade deficit. The record increase in the purchases of U.S. securities happened on account of the economy growing at the one of the fastest paces in the industrialized world and as steady rate increases in from the Federal Reserve buoys the return on the countries' debt assets. Confidence in dollar-denominated assets pushed the single strongest currency in the world to a near two-year high. The economy grew an annual 3.6 percent in the third quarter, encouraging the central bank to raise the overnight lending rate once again to 3.75 percent. Spreads on corporate debt has followed pace with outside investors pouring in. Foreigners added a net $51 billion to in corporate bond holdings while increasing equity holdings by $24.6 billion.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.