EUR/USD - Euro continued to revolve around the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, as the price action stalled around the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test the dollar offers around 1.2116, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally, breaking of which might see the pair stall around the 1.2100-1.2200 range as the pair rejected the price below the 1.2227, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally during the October trading range. However in case the Euro traders fail to keep the pair above the 1.2000 handle, that would signal weakness, which would give the dollar bulls a chance to launch a countermove. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen traders saw the momentum of their advance stall around the 116.00 handle after the pair managed to post significant gains against the dollar. As yen bulls consolidate their gains and lift the selling pressure, thus giving the greenback bulls a chance to retrace some of the yen's rally. As greenback longs retrace part of the move, the next move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and test the offers around 117.37, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-141.46 USD rally, which is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA at 117.64. A subsequent reversal will most likely see the pair head lower and test the recent support around 115.60, a top of the October consolidation zone, with a break below targeting the psychologically important 115.00 handle which is defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 104.16-121.44 JPY rally, at 114.85. Indicators are diverging with negative momentum indicator below the zero line while positive MACD is sloping downward toward the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 35.73, signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
GBP/USD - British pound traders continued to keep the pair above the 1.7700 figure, after failing to break above the dollar offers around above 1.7772, a level marked by the 50.0 of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. As sterling traders once again try to push the pair higher a break to the upside will most likely see the pair test the greenback offers around 1.7947, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally, which currently acts as a gateway to the psychologically important 1.8000 figure. A subsequent reversal will most likely see the dollar traders take over the price action and once again push the pair in the direction of the 1.7500 figure. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives the greenback longs a chance to retaliate
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls remained on the sidelines after they failed to push the pair below the 1.2800 figure with the pair revolving around 1.2890, a level established by the key 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A move to the downside will most likely see the on the part of the Swissie trader push the pair lower and take on 1.2765, a support established by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally, with break to the downside seeing the pair test the greenback bids around 1.2641, a level established by the key 61.8 Fib of the .2240-1.3285 USD rally. A sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the Swiss Franc traders aim toward the psychologically important 1.2500 handle, but a break below will most likely see the pair stall around 1.2465, a level established by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum above the zero line and negative MACD sloping upward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar continued to put up a struggle after the US dollar traders failed to push the pair above the 1.1600 handle. As greenback longs gear up of another advance, a move higher will most likely see the Loonie bulls give up the 1.1600 figure and retreat toward the 1.1686, a level established by October 12 daily low. A further move to the upside will most likely see the US dollar longs test the offers above the 1.1700 handle as they push the pair toward 1.1745, a level established by the combination of the 50-day SMA and the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2733-1.1433 CAD rally. Indicators are favoring of the Canadian dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the US dollar longs a chance to retrace part of the Canadian dollar rally.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls managed to temporarily pause their descent after the pair landed on top of the support around .7456, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally, which is further reinforced by the combination of the 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA's. A failure by the Aussie longs to stem the tide of the advancing greenback bulls will most likely see the pair collapse below the .7400 figure and test the bids around .7383, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 7798-.7267 USD rally. However given the sharpness of the latest correction short-term traders should expect a pullback toward the .7516, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the .7798-.7267 USD rally. Indicators are favoring the Aussie longs with both momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives the US dollar traders a chance to further retrace the Aussie rally.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar traders managed to get a break from the US dollar counterparts as the pair fell below the.6900 figure, but stalled after hitting the bids around .6869, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally. A bounce from these levels will most likely see the pair head toward the .6965, a level marked by the 50-day SMA and with subsequent reversal once again head below the 6900 handle. A further collapse of the Kiwi's bids will most likely see the US dollar traders push the pair below the .6800 level and test the bids around .6780, a level established by the November 15 daily low. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator below the zero line and positive MACD sloping downward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.