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Forex Economic Alerts for December 19
By John Kicklighter | Published  12/18/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for December 19
  1. German Producer Prices
  2. Eurozone Industrial Production

German Producer Prices (NOV) (7:00 GMT, 2:00 EST)
Consensus: -0.3% (MoM); 4.9% (YoY)
Previous: 0.7% (MoM); 4.6% (YoY)

Outlook: November's German producer prices are expected to fall 0.3 percent after soaring in October. This would also be the first monthly decline in prices after eleven consecutive months of inflation. With last month's data not capturing the recent fall in energy prices, that area will probably be the main negative factor in November's figures. However, the euro fell even further in November, which means that there will be some upside influence on the prices of its imported materials. Also, despite the expected monthly decline, inflation on an annual basis will actually rise to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent. However, with the recent dip in German consumer confidence following an increase in the sales tax, producers may find it to be even more difficult to pass their higher costs up the supply chain to consumers. This should keep key inflationary pressures, which are closely watched by the ECB, contained.

Previous: In October, German producer prices rose by a monthly rate of 0.7 percent, the fastest in half a year. While energy prices in the global markets had fallen in the month, German producers still paid 2 percent more for energy with the biggest culprits being electricity and natural gas. This may have been due to either a slightly slow pass-through of lower prices to producers or the depreciated value of the euro in October. Other products whose prices rose during the month included plastics and chemicals as well as non-ferrous metals. The pass-through of these materials prices to consumers is exactly what is concerning the ECB right now, but they banking on the one-time 25 basis point rate to be enough to keep inflation in control for the next few months.

Eurozone Industrial Production (OCT) (10:00 GMT, 5:00 EST)
Consensus: -0.4% (MoM); 1.0% (YoY)
Previous: -0.4% (MoM); 1.0% (YoY)

Outlook: October's industrial production for the Eurozone is expected to have declined again by 0.4 percent, the same rate seen last month. This would leave the year on year growth rate unchanged at 1.0 percent. However, much downside risk exists in this assessment due to the disappointments across the board in previously released national industrial production data of five out of the twelve Eurozone countries. Looking at the Eurozone's three largest economies, French industrial production fell by a whopping 2.5 percent in the month after increasing by 0.2 percent in September. Italian production had a 0.9 percent decline, only slightly better than last months 1.0 percent drop. Germany's industrial production growth rate, thought it beat expectations, declined to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent. Additionally, Finnish and Irish industrial production both came in below expectations as well. Judging from these numbers, the data for the entire region may disappoint as well.

Previous: Following three months of positive growth, Eurozone industrial production contracted by 0.4 percent in September. This was despite the consecutive improvements in both the overall manufacturing PMI as well as the output component since August. The disappointing industrial production figure also coincided with a decline in retail sales as domestic demand dwindled. Looking into the components of the total production number, the fall was predominantly due to declines in the output of durable consumer goods as well as intermediate goods. The change from a year ago also dropped from 2.7 percent in August to 1.0 percent in September.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.