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Forex Economic Alerts for December 20
By John Kicklighter | Published  12/19/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for December 20
  1. Swiss Producer & Import Prices
  2. Euro-zone Trade Balance
  3. Canadian Consumer Price Index
  4. U.S. Producer Price Index

Swiss Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (NOV) (08:15 GMT, 03:15 EST)
Consensus:      -0.2%
Previous:          0.0%

Outlook: Producer and import prices for Europe's eighth largest economy are expected to fall for the first time in five months according to economists' forecast of a 0.2 percent decrease in the price level for November.  Prices paid by businesses in Switzerland seem to have found their high back in September after oil prices reached a record high on supply concerns following the damage to U.S. refineries by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.  If Swiss business managers begin to see prices of raw materials easing for the period, there may be a general trend among corporations of passing on higher costs incurred in the preceding months to the consumer in order to compensate for lost profit.  With the increased attention inflation has been given over the past months, the easing of producer prices may not actually detract from speculation of rate hikes.  Foresight has shown us that the national level of inflation warranted a shift in monetary policy in the following month to a more aggressive pace.  However, if price growth for producers and consumers begins to ease, the SNB rate hike could prove premature and detract from growth that has slowly been gaining steam through the year.

Previous:  Swiss producer prices were unchanged in October while increasing 1.0 percent on a yearly basis.  The index measuring prices for factory and farm goods as well as those for imports reported a drastic change from the five-year record growth pace of September's 0.7 percent monthly increase in prices.  Producer prices were widely watched in October to see if they would confirm the large increase in the previous month due largely to the record price of crude oil.  The steady increase in the price of energy products have not led to inflation for the consumers and producers alike in the Swiss economy.  Even with prices for the volatile commodity finding a top, and producer prices leveling out, officials at the central bank still have greater scope for more hawkish rate policy for the coming months.

Euro-zone Trade Balance (OCT) (10:00 GMT, 05:00 EST)
Consensus:     0.4B
Previous:       1.4B

Outlook:  The trade balance for the dozen nations sharing the euro is expected to fall for the month of October, despite the currency's nearly 10 percent decline against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year.  The volatile monthly read is expected to post a â,¬400 million surplus in October, following a â,¬1.4 billion gap in September.  Initial readings from the largest contributing economies from the Euro-zone have already factored into expectations for the period's gap.  Germany, Europe's largest economy, reported the first decline, in its long-running surplus, in four months.  However, despite the shift in the balance, German exports still reportedly rose nearly 12 percent on an annual basis supported by stronger factory orders and industrial output.   France, Europe's third ranking economy and the Euro-zone's second, saw similar results.  The French deficit swelled to â,¬2.46 billion in October, the second largest shortfall in six months, as foreign purchases of cars in equipment goods slipped versus a boost in consumer goods' imports.  Exports have sustained much of the growth Euro-zone member economies have experienced for much of the year.  If foreign demand for European goods continues to slow as the global economy cools, it will be essential for consumer demand and investment amongst each country to pick up the slack left behind from exports.

Previous:  Euro-zone exports rebounded in September, to pull the measure out of the â,¬2.21 billion deficit the area fell into the month before.  Exports for the period surged to â,¬109.7 billion to outpace an equally generous increase in imports to bring the final balance for the month to â,¬1.4 billion.  The trade surplus has braced the Euro-zone's â,¬2.8 trillion economy which has seen its domestic consumer spending and business investment suffer amid burgeoning unemployment and struggling consumer confidence.  With the economies around the globe enduring higher energy prices, demand for European goods, not to mention goods from any other region, will weaken.  Exports have been especially strong over the past three or four months due to the depreciation of the shared currency to levels not seen in a year.

Canadian Consumer Price Index (MoM) (NOV)(12:00 GMT, 7:00 EST)
Headline
Consensus:     -0.2%
Previous:        -0.5%

Ex. Core 8
Consensus:     0.2%
Previous:        0.0%

Outlook: Expected to decline for a second month, the overall inflationary level in the Canadian economy is estimated to have dipped another 0.2 percent in the month of November.  Attributing to the decline looks to be heavy consideration from the drop in crude oil costs for the month, adding downward pressure on the annualized figure.  Overall inflationary pressures are estimated to have risen 2 percent in the month compared to an earlier posting of 2.6 percent.  As a result, with inflationary pressures seemingly contained, policy makers may not be as forthcoming with previously forecasted interest rate increases.  Economic conditions now seem somewhat converse to earlier statements by policy makers that touted the full operating capacity of the Canadian economy and impending price increases.  Nonetheless, the core figure is expected to tick higher as domestic demand has remained lofty in the region, providing some near term bid speculation in the underlying currency.

Previous: Consumer prices in the world's eighth largest economy rose less than expected on an annualized basis while dropping on the monthly figure.  For October, prices rose 2.6 percent on a year on year comparison and declined 0.5 percent on the monthly.  Although less than the previous spike by 3.4 percent in September, inflation still remains a hot topic as it resides above the 2 percent benchmark target set by Bank of Canada policy makers.  This fact, coupled with the economy's current full capacity production level, is lending to recently mounting speculation that interest rates must continue to rise.  In attempts to preventively curb inflationary pressures, Governor David Dodge and company have raised the short term bank rate two times since September raising the rate to 3.25 percent.  Confirming a highly probable third consecutive increase were comments by Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Paul Jenkins.  Earlier, Jenkins stated that the current operating force of the region could speed up inflation if left unchecked.  Currently, inflation is expected to rise to 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter before slowing.

U.S. Producer Price Index (MoM)(NOV)(13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Headline
Consensus:     -0.4%
Previous:         0.7%

Ex. Food and Energy
Consensus:      0.2%
Previous:        -0.3%

Outlook: Increased domestic demand for goods in the world's largest economy looks to have spurred higher inflationary potential as lower crude contracts eased overall pressure.  Estimated for the month of November, prices at the producer level may have dipped by 0.4 percent as the core number, excluding volatile food and energy components, is expected to have risen 0.2 percent.  Crude oil contracts, having pulled back for most of November from the record $70.85 high in August and declining, contributes to the forecasted dip in the headline figure.  However, with domestic demand on the rebound and consumer consumption back on track, the fundamental theory of low supply, higher prices may have dominated in the month pushing both consumer and producer levels higher.  As a result, the notion further contributes to a highly probably rate increase when the Federal Reserve next meets as policy makers continue to remain wary of inflation. 

Previous:  Producer prices in the month of October rose 0.7 percent against expectations of no change from the previous month as higher crude oil prices once again contributed to an increase.  The core figure which excludes food and energy, however, dropped 0.3 percent, suggesting that wholesalers are finding it difficult to pass on these costs of higher energy and fuel to the consumer level.  Subsequently the largest drop in two years, the core figure decline indicates that inflationary pressures may be well contained in the world's largest economy.  Nonetheless, economists continue to speculate on further rate increases in the near term future as policy makers take precautionary measures, prompting another 25 basis point rate hike to 4.25 percent. Comparatively, the October number is slightly lower than the 1.9 percent increase witnessed in September, the biggest gain in 15 years.  Notably, the current data is reflective of cheaper cars, technology and clothing.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.