"I am much more optimistic," said Horacio Marquez, comparing himself to your editor.

Señor Marquez sees the glass more than half full. He sees it practically running over. Yes, the U.S. economy is overextended and will probably slack off next year. But, no, the world economy will not fall apart. Instead, it will boom, thanks to spectacular rates of growth outside the United States.

We ran into Horacio in Baltimore, where he gave us a copy of his outlook for 2006.

"The best opportunity for profits since the Second World War," it begins. "The deceleration of the U.S. economy will be more than compensated for by acceleration in Japan, Brazil, Germany, Italy, France, emerging countries in Europe, India and China."

If American consumers stop consuming, China's factories will have to look elsewhere for new customers. India's service industries will have to look for other people to service. Germany's auto manufacturers will have to find other drivers. Brazil will have to find new markets for its soybeans.

But so what? America prospered in the 20th century without depending on foreign spendthrifts. Shoemakers in New Hampshire cobbled for aircraft workers in California who built flying machines for businessmen from Atlanta. Nearly every family ended the century richer than it began it. Mightn't factory slaves in Shanghai buss and shlep for IT geniuses in Bangalore as well as those in Silicon Valley? Mightn't a new Mercedes grace the parking lots of Singapore as well as those of Hollywood? Mightn't Malaysians, Indonesians, Nepalese, and Cantonese begin using handheld electronic gizmos made in Japan and fattening themselves on food enriched with soy oil imported from Brazil?

Horacio thinks so.

"Buy Mitsubishi," he recommends. "Japan continues its agenda of profound restructuring, including the privatization of the postal system. The banking system is near the end of its process of restructuring... deflation....is giving way to a light and benign inflation....[and] the Chinese economy feeds on rising industrial and technological imports from Japan."

Likewise, in Brazil, a combination of favorable political developments and an expanding world market for primary products is doing wonders for the economy. Brazil's finance minister is an old Trotskyite. President Lula has said a lot of stupid and silly things. But, fortunately, he didn't mean it. Instead, they've instituted reasonably sensible and conservative economic policies - almost the exact opposite of those north of the Rio Grande. The fiscal deficit is declining. Interest rates are relatively high (credit is tight). Inflation rates are falling. The economy is growing. And one of Brazil's major steel producers, CVRD, looks like a bargain, says Horacio.

Maybe he is right. Maybe, on a global basis, the glass really is more than half full. We don't know. Buying a few solid stocks in growing markets might be a good strategy. The rest of the world kept growing when Britain went into decline in the late 19th century. And so, the rest of the world will probably keep growing as the United States declines, too. But Daily Reckoning readers are urged to hold onto some gold; the transition could be rough.

*** Speaking of gold...the price seems to be holding above $500. We expected it to correct. So far, the correction has taken about $30 off the price. We suspect that the correction has further to go. We will wait and see...and prepare to buy at any price below $500.

Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing.  For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.