1. Swiss Trade Balance
2. U.K. Gross Domestic Product
3. U.S. Leading Indicators
4. U.S. Personal Income /  Personal Spending

Swiss Trade Balance (NOV) (07:15 GMT, 02:15 EST)
Consensus: 1.20B
Previous: 1.00B

Outlook: The Swiss trade surplus is on track to grow to its second highest level in over five years if economists' expectations of a 1.20 billion franc net export gap is met.  Exports from the country likely outpaced domestic demand for imports as the currency continued its weakening trend and demand from its largest trading partners heats up.  Consumers from abroad also joined businesses in purchasing Swiss made goods.   Hiring in two of Switzerland's largest trading partners, Germany and France, ramped up in November.  The jobless rate in Germany, ever a problem for the standing governmental administration, fell for its seventh month in eight to post a new 10 month low 11.5 percent.  Similarly, France's unemployment rate for the period fell to a May low 9.7 percent.  If exports remain on their current strengthening pace, they will contribute to a strong domestic spending trend.  Subsequently, the Swiss National Bank recently increased its estimate for the current year's growth from 1.3 to 1.5 percent, while also deciding earlier this month to increase the overnight lending rate for the first time since June of 2004 to an average of 1 percent.  If growth keeps on its current pace and inflation continues to loom for the medium term, the SNB could once again consider a rate hike necessary.

Previous:  A government revision to the 1.16 billion franc surplus initially reported in October, dropped the figure to a more measured 1.0 billion franc export-favored balance.  Exports of 13.5 billion francs outpaced imports of 12.5 billion francs as global demand for Swiss goods was boosted by a depreciated currency and rebounding global economy.  The Swiss franc has been in a free fall for most of the year.  By October, it had lost 16 percent against the benchmark US dollar, making Swiss made goods an affordable substitute for similar goods in other European countries and the United States.  Demand from Switzerland's largest trade partners was also on the return with oil and gasoline prices easing off of record highs.  German business likely played a significant role growing demand for Swiss exports in October.  The Ifo confidence index for Switzerland's largest trade partner rose to 98.8 for the month, the highest level in five years, as business leaders take advantage of receding energy prices to increase their investment and salvage revenues. 

U.K. GDP (YoY) (3Q 3) (09:30 GMT, 04:30 EST)
Consensus: 1.7%
Previous: 1.5%

Outlook: After setting the United Kingdom's economy, the second largest in Europe, on a path for its slowest annual growth in thirteen years in the first half of 2005, the third quarter looks to have picked up a little steam.  Expansion over the three months ending in September was led by a pickup in consumer spending and increased investment in buildings.  Weakening household spending is largely to blame for the slowing pace of growth so far this year.  However, expenditures by citizens in the previous quarter rose 0.5 percent, for the highest level since the final quarter of 2004.  Increased spending in retail sales, the housing market and services has given support to the BoE's predictions that consumer spending would sustain a gradual recover in the economy in 2006.   Subsequently, spending in the service sector, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the economy, rose 0.6 percent for the period.  Even the manufacturing sector, which went into a recession in the first half, has grown 0.4 percent for the same quarter.  The improved outlook for the economy this indicator has offered was also the primary reason the BoE decided to keep its lending rate unchanged at its December policy meeting.  With a domestic-led increase in economic growth, monetary officials feel inflation remains every present, which has kept above the bank's 2 percent target for five months in a row in November. 

Previous: An unexpected revision in UK growth for the second quarter, brought economic activity to its lowest level since 1993.  With a quarterly rate of 0.5 percent and annually pace of 1.5 percent, Chancellor Gordon Brown was inclined to admit that his forecasted 3.0 to 3.5 percent pace for the year was probably unattainable.  Growth has been hampered largely due to consumers' reluctance to spend their hard earned income.  Although real household disposable income grew a hefty 1.1 percent in the three months ending in June, other indicators report consumption has only risen 0.9 percent.  Consumers have remained leery about spending their pounds with a tempering housing market and increasing unemployment on the back of rising petrol prices.  An upward revision to the initial 0.2 percent rise in consumer spending to 0.4 percent, helped to relieve some fears over future growth.  Furthermore, with the government facing an unwilling consumer, possible action to alleviate the growing budget deficit for the year was looking less and less a viable option.  With increasing tax receipts not a feasible plan, then government spending would be the only option to put a halt to the growing gap.

U.S. Leading Indicators (NOV) (15:00 GMT, 10:00 EST)
Consensus:  0.4%
Previous: 0.9%

Outlook: The expected growth in the Conference Board's US leading indicator is 0.4 percent for November and it would be a second consecutive positive figure in the index; such a trend was last seen in June. Looking into the seven components of the index, which are available through prior data releases, four of increased while the other three fell. In the labor market, average weekly initial jobless claims declined again, but the average manufacturing workweek also shortened to 40.8 hours from 41.0. The ISM index of supplier deliveries fell in the month, from 61.7 to 58.3. The other negative factor is contributed by the yield curve while other positive aspects were increases in building permits, the S&P 500 equity index, and also the University of Michigan's index of consumer expectations. Looking at the remaining components, there is a chance that manufacturing orders dipped in light of a lower figure on the ISM manufacturing new orders component index as well as less-than-expected growth in retail sales for November. Slower growth in the leading indicator will again imply an impending growth slowdown as data from prior reports have shown.

Previous: October marked the first increase in the Conference Board's US leading indicator in four months with a move to 0.9 percent, which was even higher than the lofty median estimate of 0.8 percent. The increase in the index was helped along by labor market improvements and manufacturers orders while the only two negative components were a smaller issuance of building permits and lower stock prices. Changes in the labor market were reflective of a recovery from post-hurricane conditions and were the most significant part of the 0.9 percent reading with a combined contribution of 0.72 percentage points. Although the rebound in the headline index was good news, it is now just back in line with the pre-hurricane trend which was indicative of flattening growth in the coming months.

U.S. Personal Income (MoM) (NOV) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus:  0.3%
Previous:  0.4%

U.S. Personal Spending (MoM) (NOV) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus:  0.4%
Previous:  0.2%

Outlook: Economists estimate that November's personal income and spending growth will be 0.3 percent, and 0.4 percent, respectively. The 0.3 percent growth in income would be congruent with this year's prevailing trend in addition to some negative effects from dwindling post-hurricane insurance payments. As for spending, the acceleration in growth is consistent with the surges seen in consumer confidence for the same month. The consumer sentiment index reported by the University of Michigan saw a rise from 74.2 in October to 81.6 while the Conference Board's measure grew from 85.2 to 98.9. Also, average gasoline prices fell by over 13.1 percent between the end of October and the week ending November 28th. The smaller bills at the pump were probably a welcome boost to US consumer spending as this year's holiday shopping season officially started over Thanksgiving weekend. While faster spending growth would be good news, there is still the expected 1.8 percent annual PCE core inflation, which will be weighing on this report. This figure would match October's record for the lowest rate since March 2004. It would also be lower than any core inflation rate seen since the FOMC began its latest string of rate hikes in June 2004. Since this is the inflation measure preferred by policy makers, a failure to increase is good indication of a fast approaching end to rate hikes.

Previous: October's personal income and spending figures were quite muted compared to the volatile post-Katrina data seen in September. Personal income rose by 0.4 percent while spending growth was weaker at 0.2 percent. Most of the income growth was in salary and wages while there was still some evidence of one-time effects from the hurricanes. For instance, current transfer receipts from businesses, a category which includes insurance payments, were $42.1 billion in October, up from $36.5 billion in September. This is much higher than the pre-hurricane average of about $29.2 billion for the five months up to and including July. Overall, though the income growth figure was slightly lower than the 0.5 percent median estimate, the actual rate of 0.4 percent is still in line with the trend seen prior to the hurricanes. In terms of spending, the 0.2 percent figure met the median estimate and reflected a concentration of spending growth in nondurable goods and services. Spending on durable goods continued September's decline as auto sales fell further after the summer price promotions ended. Industrywide sales of car manufacturers dropped by an annual rate of 11 percent in the month according to a report from Autodata Corp. However, a more concerning part of the personal income and spending report was the low PCE deflator, which showed that annual inflation in October was a mere 1.8 percent, the lowest rate since March 2004. Even though a large part of the slowdown in inflation was due to the drop in gasoline prices, this could still indicate to the Fed that inflation pressures are subsiding, which is not good news for interest rates.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.