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Market Holds Wide Intraday Range
By Toni Hansen | Published  12/22/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Holds Wide Intraday Range

Good morning! The market has had a fun time over the last couple of days as the indices bounced back and forth in a large 60-120 minute range. Wednesday began on a strong note when a premarket base at highs on an upside gap broke higher. This strong 15 minute setup helped the market move strongly throughout the morning. There wasn't much of a chance to get on board once the buying began, but the move was sure and steady for the first hour of the day.

 

The NASDAQ stalled first at resistance around 10:30 ET. The NQ (NASDAQ 100 EMini) had come back into the 1700 level and pivoted with a strong shooting star candlestick pattern on the 5 and 15 minute charts. It dropped quickly into the 5 minute 200 sma where it fell into a range and formed an Avalanche pattern on the 5 minute charts into 11:00 ET. During this time, the buying in the S&P500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. also slowed and began to correct. They took a bit longer, falling more into a base than a strong pullback.

The pace in the market tried to pick up again out of 12:00, but the bounce off support around 12:30 ET was very gradual. In terms of the larger 15 minute charts, it should have taken until about 14:00 ET for the market to correct in order to put in a strong upside continuation pattern. By attempting to move higher before that, the S&P500 made a double top intraday while the Dow trapped those buying the new highs with a 2T. The NASDAQ, however, simply continued to form a larger bear pattern on the 15 minute charts with an Avalanche on that time frame into 13:00 ET.

When the 13:00 ET reversal period hit, the bulls surrendered. Selling came into the market slowly at first, but quickly picked up steam. A sharp drop back to morning lows came with a slight volume spike, exhausting the market into the 13:30 ET reversal period. A gradual correction from that level helped create a continuation pattern with a 5 minute bear flag into the 5 minute 20 sma resistance. This decline closed the morning gap around 15:00 ET. That support, along with the reversal period itself, held into the close.

I don't anticipate doing much on Thursday. I expect the morning to be the most active, followed by a slowdown into the afternoon. So far this week the volume has held up pretty well, but many traders will be hitting the road to visit family over the extended weekend. I expect to wrap up my week at some point between 10:30-12:00 ET, depending on what type of action we have out of the open. It looks like the larger 60-120 minute range will continue, but will probably narrow on Thursday. I'm going to be taking off myself for a long drive back up north again this year so this column will resume with the new year.... as long as we don't get stuck in another blizzard like last year! Have a wonderful remainder of the year!

Updates: NCI from the 7th has support at the 20 day sma. NTRS, which I have from mid-October as a position trade long is pulling in a bit after making new highs last week. The 20 week sma and 100 day sma are support. HSP, a position trade from early September, is currently basing again and also has support at its 20 week sma zone. I remain cautious on new swingtrades at this time as we round out the holiday season. I'll start to focus on them once again after New Year's.

Economic Reports and Events
Dec 22: Initial Claims 12/17 (8:30 am), Personal Income for Nov. (8:30 am), Personal Spending for Nov. (8:30 am), Leading Indicators for Nov. (10:00 am)
Dec 23: Durable Orders for Nov. (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment-Rev. for Dec (9:45 am), New Home Sales for Nov. (10:00 am)
Dec 26: -
Dec 27: -

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Dec 22: CTAS (B), CAG (B), GIS (?), GPN (B), SLR (?)
Dec 23: -
Dec 26: -
Dec 27: -

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.