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Forex Economic Alerts for December 23
By John Kicklighter | Published  12/22/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for December 23
  1. Canadian Gross Domestic Product
  2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Canadian GDP (MoM) (OCT) (13:30 GMT, 08:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.0%

Outlook: Canada's economy is expected to grow a modest 0.2 percent in October, following a stagnant report for September.  New vehicle sales for the month, ended the two sharp month of contraction by reporting a 3.3 percent increase with consumers slowly moving back into the market with easing gasoline prices making it a less costly investment.  Manufacturing, the other factor contributing to September's stand still in growth, has turned positive as well.  Shipments of manufactured goods actually rose 0.9 percent while factory orders gained 2.3 percent.  The positive turn in these two sectors was also met with leveling growth in other parts of the economy.  Strength in energy exports, as well as those of retail goods, is being hampered by a currency that is at a 13-year low against the US dollar.  Domestic spending is being well supported however.  With the economy running near full capacity, employment and consumer confidence have continued to flourish.  Looking to the future, with much of the oil-driven growth behind them, Canada will be increasingly dependant on domestic demand with the currency suppressing sales abroad. 

Previous:  After a strong pace of growth in July and August, of 0.3 and 0.5 percent respectively, economic expansion in Canada for the final quarter was unchanged.  Despite the stagnant month, the annual pace of growth rose to 3.6 percent in the third quarter versus 3.4 percent in the three months ending in June.   Strong reports in both the energy and the majority of the retail sector were sharply offset by contractions in manufacturing and autos.   By far the most significant addition to growth for the period came from the energy sector, which advanced 0.6 percent in September. Overall retail sales actually posted a second monthly contraction of 1.5 percent in September as dealer incentives ended the artificially inflated pace of car purchases abroad.  However, excluding the decline in activity for automakers, retail activity actually rose 0.9 percent and wholesale trade activity jumped 1.2 percent.   Besides the dip in autos production, manufacturing balanced out growth for the period.  Output fell 1 percent led by a 2 percent drop in transportation equipment and a 2.7 decline in machinery.

US Durable Goods Orders (MoM)(NOV)(13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)

Headline
Consensus:  1.2%
Previous:  3.7%

Ex Transportation
Consensus:  1.0%
Previous:  0.3%

Outlook: November is expected to see slower growth in durable goods orders at 1.2 percent after October beat expectations with a 3.7 percent climb in orders. This assessment is based on a number of factors including surging consumer confidence figures (from both the University of Michigan and Conference Board measures) as well as an expected increase in automobile orders as car manufacturers launched a new round of incentives in November following record low sales in October. However, the effect of higher consumer confidence may be muted since many of the survey's respondents, particularly lower income households, continued to express concern over their personal financial situations, which could curb their spending. Also, these effects should be spread out over the next few months as increased buying on the retail end filters its way through to manufacturers' orders.

Previous: Durable goods orders increased by a greater-than-expected 3.7 percent between September and October following a 2 percent decline. Some of the most impactful increases seen in individual product sectors were in machinery and aircraft. Aggregate machinery orders increased by 2 percent despite a significant decrease in orders of mining and extraction machinery following the fall of oil prices from September's high. The boost in aircraft orders came as Boeing workers ended their four-week strike and factories were up and running again on September 30th. Unfilled orders for durable goods also rose by 1.6 percent in their fifth consecutive monthly increase. Judging from this report, there are enough new and backlogged orders to keep manufacturing output growing at a steady pace for the next few months. In addition, new orders from continued rebuilding efforts in the Gulf Coast are still flowing in and will add to this existing momentum.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.