USD/CAD
Thin Volume Propels Dollar: With holiday cheer still in air, traders took advantage of thin market conditions in pushing the dollar higher against the Canadian counter. Expectations still are running high of continued interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve and as a result, investors are booking it for a carry capture. Here, traders are anticipating profits from not only the price appreciation but also the interest rate gap between the two economies. Interestingly enough, U.S. economic data was suggestively bearish. According to the Richmond Federal Reserve's monthly manufacturing report, activity slowed for the month of December. The overall index declined to a negative 2 reading against expectations of a positive 10 print as employment and new orders components slipped. Nonetheless, given the recent quarter's bullish figures, the market seems resolved in at least one more rate hike to 4.5 percent. Adding to the Canadian downside, crude oil contracts slipped on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Falling to $57.92, bearish selling continued on the day as warmer than expected temperatures are forecasted to continue in the Northeast and Midwest United States.
Technically Speaking: Spiking off of 1.1651 (50 percent fib from the weekly move), the price action seems to be finding a temporary ceiling at the previous resistance of 1.1745. Such a move, albeit propelled by thin activity, looks ripe for a temporal adjustment in the near term. First floor posed will be the 1.1706 figure (23.6 percent fib level) with a formidable barrier at 1.1676 (38.2 percent fib).
EUR/JPY
Carry Potential: Further carry potential ensued in the EURJPY currency cross as the rather down Japanese data continued to place pressure on the yen. Currently, with the Japanese economy sporting a zero interest rate monetary policy, investors will be able to capture 225 basis points between the two economies. Adding to further downside on the yen, household spending figures dipped in the month. Expected to rise 0.1 percent in the month, domestic spending actually declined 0.7 percent. The figure was considerably disappointing as the decline follows a 1.2 percent surge in the previous month. Additionally, unemployment rose in the economy, jumping from the 4.5 percent seen in October to 4.6 percent. The rate was expected to decline to 4.3 percent as economists expected companies to continue hiring in the face of higher productivity. With domestic demand and subsequent spending still on the low, the current momentum in the economy remains mild compared to a fiery entrance into 2006. As a result, policy makers may have more ammo than previously expected in justifying a continuance in the current rate.
Technically Speaking: Finding a bottom at the 137.59 support floor, the currency cross has jumped hitting a temporary resistance ceiling at 139 (78.6 percent fib from the weekly move). Consolidating at the moment, the price action looks to favor further upside with a penetration of the aforementioned level. Given the strength of the current figure holds, the drop to the 138.70 support would be indefinite with a halt at the 138.49 figure (50 percent fib level) where consolidation had previously established a barrier.
USD/JPY
Dour Data For The Yen: Although data was overall down on the Japanese currency, there still remained some light of hope as nationwide sales rose more than expected. Nationwide department sales actually rose 3.2 percent in the month of November against a 0.1 percent blip seen last month. Weakly considered bullish for the yen, the figure may only be reflective of the holiday season and considered temporary. However, should the market see two consecutive increases on that level, the good vibes may spill into the overall picture, lifting suggestions of a near term pickup in overall spending. Nonetheless, players continued to seek out carry candidates and the USDJPY was not excluded. Sporting 425 basis points between the world's largest and second largest economies, the USDJPY pair continued to be the carry fav as we exit 2005. Additionally, inflationary suggestions remained weak as consumer prices continued to decline. This would lead policy makers in axing any suggestions to raise interest rates leading to further near term momentum in the greenback's favor.
Technically Speaking: Spiking through previous resistance levels, the momentum seems to be waning slightly as the price action consolidates. However, further upside should not be a problem in the near term as the pair approaches the previous ceiling at 1.1758. A failure would definitively see a test of the 1.1719 (23.6 percent fib level from the week's bull move) before further consolidation at the 116.87 (38.2 percent fib level) figure.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.