Today, I'd like to answer one concern that always seems to pop up. The question came worded in several ways, but what it all boiled down to was one issue that has always frustrated traders -- how do you find good trades in a sideways market?
The answer isn't an easy one. That's not to say the problem is insurmountable, but it won't be easy. Why? Because the solution involves two frequently differing aspects of trading. The first issue is a mechanical one, and the second is one in your head. We'll look at both.
Mechanical searches for trading ideas: You may think the last two months for stocks were just a horrible period for trading, as the indexes made no net progress - up or down. Well, based solely on the indexes, you'd be right. However, there have been no fewer stock trading ideas than there usually are. The tough part is finding them, since they're not in the usual places. You see, the stocks that folks typically trade are the ones they've heard of, and the ones that get the most media coverage. Mostly large-caps, these same stocks tend to move as a herd. That's fine, except when the herd doesn't move at all. If you were buying or shorting any of the S&P 500 stocks over the last couple of months, you were probably disappointed in the lack of movement.
And the point? It's one we've made before, but one worth making again......90% of charts are ambiguous. They are neither going higher nor lower, nor are they giving any clear indication of where they may be headed next. In other words, they're not worth trading. You can't make the market give you what you want. You have to take what it gives you, and be able to recognize what it offers.
The good news is this - that still leaves 10% of stocks setting up decent trades. But the trick is finding them. This is where nearly everybody is having a tough time right now. While the TV news and print media is one choice for finding investing ideas, it's really not the best choice. These sources are frequently late to the party, or worse, they're telling irrelevant stories. To use these sources as your sole pool of ideas puts you in the same boat as everybody else, which means you'll never beat the market.
If you're looking for ideas that haven't already played out, you MUST have a way of finding emerging trends and spotting stocks that are actually moving. We use chart criteria and 'scan' for the stocks and options that fit that criteria, but that's not the only possibility. You can use fundamental criteria to sort and scan for stocks that are on the move, undervalued, or about anything else. The point is, you can't follow the crowd. Hundreds of pretty liquid stocks have made big moves (higher or lower) over the last two months. You just need a way to find them, and you need the confidence and trust to take those trades. Some of them will seem like impossible trends, while others you may have never even heard of. Trust the system, even when it turns up the mundane things like utilities consumer staples.
Expectations: The biggest problem with trading a choppy market is head game you can play with yourself, but I think that really comes down to an issue of expectation. Yes, sometimes trading is easy because the market moves smoothly in one direction or the other. Other times, we see the opposite. Being able to recognize which environment you're in will help you manage your expectations. And once you do that, you'll be able to adjust your approach and tolerance for slow progress or volatility.
Here's a tip: There are only a few periods in the year where trading is a worthwhile venture. The thing is, you don't need a lot of opportunities in a year - you just need a handful of good ones. I think this might be the number one agony for traders (especially new ones). Like I said above, you can't make the market give you what you want. You have to take what it gives you, and be able to recognize what it offers. If you're trying to bag a big trade in the summer (when stocks are notoriously flat) because you saw a big spring-time move, you're barking up the wrong tree. Your expectation of a repeat or reversal of a trend was the only basis for entering that trade. It's not your fault that the stock probably won't move, but your expectations that it should are eventually going to drive you mad. And that's when traders start making mental errors. Don't expect that what worked in the past will work in the future. Think quality, not quantity.
The other thing you have to keep in mind about your expectations is your view of how a trade progresses. As we mentioned, there were stocks that moved higher and lower this year despite the fact that the overall market has made no real progress. Yet, 3 out of 4 stocks move the same direction as the market on a daily basis. It's not reasonable to expect your particular trades to completely resist that kind of pressure. They should be less affected by the market's daily dynamic, but the market's ebb and flow will still be visible on the charts of your stocks, whether they're long or short trades. This up and down movement makes for much less efficient trends, but it does not mean that a stock can't go higher or lower in a sideways market. It does mean that you have to give these trades more time to reach their targets. You also have to give them a little more wiggle room.
Those are just a couple of ideas of handling a sideways market. Even though it looks like we may be breaking out of the rut soon, don't forget these ideas - the market will start moving sideways again soon enough. And don't forget, there's no law that says you have to trade all the time.
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Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.