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Forex Economic Alerts for January 4
By John Kicklighter | Published  01/3/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for January 4
  1. Canadian Industrial Product Price
  2. U.S. Factory Orders

Canadian Industrial Product Price (MoM)(NOV)(13:30 GMT GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus:  -0.5%
Previous:  -0.1%

Outlook:  Expected to decline for a second consecutive month, Canadian industrial product price is anticipated to decline by 0.5 percent in the month of November.  Commodity prices continued to slide, specifically in the petroleum and coal sectors.  Although hovering $60 a barrel, light sweet crude contracts continued to remain below the $70.85 spike high experienced on August 30th.  As a result, manufacturers paid lower prices for raw materials, suggestive of weak inflationary pressures and may ultimately pass the cost savings on to the consumer.  This looks to, in turn, lower price increases at the consumer level and leave the central bank questioning the need for further interest rate hikes.
However, given the productive expansion seen in recent quarters, the Bank of Canada looks to opt in favor of rate hikes to remain safer than sorry.

Previous:  Canadian industrial product prices declined on the month as manufacturers experienced lower prices on sliding commodities. Petroleum and coal prices slipped for the first time in five months as crude contracts fell below the ominous $60 a barrel price figure.  Raw material costs additionally declined 1.4 percent last month according to Statistics Canada.  The incremental decline in prices may contribute to a shaky future of interest rate hike consideration in the economy, a theme that has moved into center stage.  Although the world's eighth largest economy has been showing signs of expansion, inflation has not been rising as fiercely as expected.  Nonetheless, policy makers remain vigilant and may be forthcoming with a rate hike as they continue to be preventive.

U.S. Factory Orders (NOV)(15:00 GMT, 10:00 EST)
Consensus:  2.2%
Previous:  2.2%

Outlook:  Expected to rise for a second consecutive month, factory orders in the world's largest economy is expected to increase another 2.2 percent.  However, the figure may be too dependent on the civilian aircrafts as suggested by the durable goods orders report in the month of November as the defense component tumbled in the month.  According to the Commerce Department, new orders vaulted past estimates rising 3 percent on the month.  Contributing heavily was a huge net of contracts by the largest U.S. aircraft maker.  Boeing last month netted billions of dollars worth in contracts in a substantial deal with Chinese companies.  However, momentum in capital goods, or business investments, looks to be cut short as the figure declined 2 percent.  The continued growth in orders looks to favor the dollar bull as the report contributes to overall positive output in the economy.

Previous:  Factory orders in the U.S. rose for the second month in three as recovery from the hurricanes in the Gulf Coast were well underway.  For the month of October, orders rose 2.2 percent following a decrease of 1.4 percent in the previous month.  The rise to $399.8 billion, according to the Commerce Department, was bolstered by an uptick in bookings for commercial aircraft and machinery.  Excluding the aforementioned orders, the monthly figure rose 0.6 percent. Additionally, increases in capital investment were noted as capital good orders excluding aircraft climbed 1.4 percent after plunging 1.8 in the previous period.  With durable goods orders subsequently on the rise, constituting about 55 percent of the figure, demand looks to remain healthy throughout the fourth quarter, bolstering expansion in the economy.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.