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Forex Economic Alerts for January 5
By John Kicklighter | Published  01/4/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for January 5
  1. Euro-zone Producer Price Index
  2. Euro-zone Retail Sales
  3. Euro-zone Consumer Confidence
  4. German Factory Orders

Euro-zone PPI  (NOV) (10:00 GMT, 5:00 EST)
Consensus: -0.2%
Previous: 0.6%

Outlook:  Euro zone producer prices are expected to decrease by 0.2% in November, a significant slowdown from October's 0.6% increase.  Analysts firmly believe that the slumping of oil prices in the last two months will contribute to the fall, as energy prices can have a significant impact on the prices producers pay for their goods.  As producer's prices increase, it is widely expected that they will eventually pass along these price increases to consumers in an effort to maintain profit margins. However, with current expectations calling for a negative number, it is likely that inflation will not be a threat to the economy, and therefore the European Central Bank might be hesitant to raise interest rates at its next meeting.  However, on a year-adjusted basis, PPI currently stands at 4.1% - posing the possibility that producers will be passing on these higher prices to consumers in the months to come.

Previous:  Producer Prices in the Euro-zone increased to 0.6% in October, a slight increase from September's reading of 0.5%.  Costs to producers have steadily been on the rise since June, increasing at nearly half a percent each month.  This has caused a large amount of speculation as to whether or not the producers will pass along this cost to the consumers early into 2006. 

Euro-zone Retail Sales (NOV) (10:00 GMT, 5:00 EST)
Consensus: 0.4%
Previous: 0.5%

Outlook:  Retail sales for the Euro-zone are expected to decrease slightly to 0.4% in November from October's reading of 0.5%.  However, the Bloomberg Euro-zone Retail PMI * a monthly survey that comes out a month in advance of the governmental survey * indicates that on a month-over-month basis, Euro-zone retail sales increased slightly in November.  Although marginal, monthly gains were seen across the board in the Euro-zone, most notably in Italy, who posted a gain for the third consecutive month.  On a bearish note, planned sales by European retailers failed to meet expectations as they have for every month in the last two years.  It is apparent that the spending power by consumers has been relatively weak, which poses a threat to the overall economy.  Traders will closely watch the data, due to the fact that an increase in consumer spending can be an economic stimulus for future GDP growth.  As consumer confidence picks up, and employment within the Euro-zone steadily improves, the last piece of the puzzle seems to be in the hand of the consumers. 

Previous:  In October, retail sales in the Euro-zone jumped 0.5% on a monthly basis, directly inline with analyst estimates.  This was a significant increase from September's drop of 0.9%.  However, on a year-over-year basis, retail sales only increased 0.5%, falling short of the estimated 0.9% rise.  Traders have been looking for any kind of sign that consumer spending is picking up steam, which would help contribute to a turnaround in the fragile European economy.  Some analysts believe that the rise in energy prices this summer have had a negative impact on the European consumer, which has really crimped spending on discretionary items.  If the ECB decides to raise interest rates come December 1st, it is quite possible that they will stump any future growth in domestic demand, ultimately hindering the much-anticipated economic expansion in 2006.

Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (DEC) (10:00 GMT, 5:00 EST)
Consensus: -12.0
Previous: -13.0

Outlook:  Consumer confidence in the Euro-zone is expected to increase from a reading of *13 to *12 in the month of December.  Given the recent slew of positive economic data coming from the region * i.e. the German unemployment report and the Euro-zone PMI * it is likely that consumer confidence will continue to increase.  Earlier in the week, the PMI data came in at 53.6, with increased backlogs of work and falling stocks in finished goods.  This indicates an expansionary manufacturing market, which may correspondingly spillover into the economy as a whole.  German unemployment showed a largely unexpected drop of 110,000 last month, with the overall unemployment rate falling from 11.4% to 11.2%.  The GfK research organization, which conducts Consumer Climate Survey, also showed bullish news for the Euro-zone, rising to a six-month high of 3.4 in December.  In the long run, this should help bolster the Euro as an increase in consumer confidence may lead to a further increase in consumer spending, potential interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

Previous:  In the month of November, the consumer confidence reading came in at *13, a mild increase from the month of October.  Although still negative, there are several telltale signs that the Euro-zone is slowly picking up momentum.  The European Central Bank most recently raised interest rates 25 basis points to 2.25% - an act of monetary policy that is implemented to combat future inflation.  Additionally, policy makers are already projecting growth estimates of 1.3% - 1.9% in 2006, a noticeable increase from 2005.  With the German economy finally turning itself around and an potentially improving employment picture across the board, it is apparent that the confidence of the consumer may be on the up and up.

German Factory Orders (NOV)(11:00 GMT, 6:00 EST)
Consensus: -1.0%
Previous: 2.0%

Outlook:  Factory orders in Germany are widely expected to fall in the month of November.  Analysts estimate that factory orders will come in around *1.0%, a sharp decline from the October and September gains of 2.0% and 2.8%, respectively.  Since Germany is the Eurozone's largest economy, traders will be widely anticipating this number as a precursor to what actions policy makers will take in the coming months.  A recent slew of economic data provides evidence that the current consensus may be a little understated.  The German Manufacturing Index grew at its fastest pace in 16-months, from 52.7 to 53.6.  In addition to this, the Euro posted a 13% decline against the US Dollar in 2005, which has the potential to boost the country's exports.  As a result, should the figure post higher than expected, policy makers may see enough evidence to consider further near term tightening. 

Previous:  Germany factory orders increased by 2.0% in October, a slight decline from September's increase of 2.8%.  The two consecutive months of bullish data are helping to make up for August's 3.8% decline.  The reading handily beat Wall Street estimates of 0.5%, and further indicates a strengthening of Europe's largest economy.  With the report came the retail sales index, which rose to 50.7 * the largest increase in three months.  These two pieces of positive fundamental data bode well for the Euro, as speculators continue to look for any pieces of evidence leading to further interest rate hikes by the monetary authorities.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.