Energies
A strong surge in crude, heat and unleaded went almost unnoticed this week as the collapse in natural gas took center stage.  The energy markets are at a critical stage as the market was due for a bounce but follow through next week is unlikely.  Despite a strong technical chart in crude the market is likely to see a pullback next week and bulls looking to jump on the bandwagon will find themselves getting in too late.  Sell call premium across the board in the oil complex.  Natural gas failed to bounce after a much better than expected build in supplies put additional pressure on the market.  While everything on the nat gas chart screams a breakdown of another 20% or so my gut says it will find unlikely support next week as supplies are not quite ready for market if we should run into a late winter cold spell. 

Financials
Stocks surges to fresh multi-year highs as the January rally follows historic trend rather than last year?s counter trend.  I suspect that Bush?s late in the week campaign to push the PR on a solid US economy gave a short lived boost to the market.  Let us not forget that every major technical breakout in the S&P over the past two years has been met with a reversal (bull and bear).  With that said, there is little to suggest that anything different will occur in the New Year.  This is an ideal scale in shorting opportunity with inexpensive March bear put spreads.  The bond market got a strong indication from the Fed that the rates were just about over and that kept prices near recent highs this week despite a fairly neutral employment report (under for Dec., upward revision for Nov evened it out).  The gut says this bullish chart is about to get rocked to the downside ahead of the end of the month finale to Greenspan?s reign as Fed chair.  The dollar retraced just enough to get me excited about being a buyer and it happened fast enough that if you don?t get short the euro or long the dollar this week you may miss your chance.  The Canadian collapsed violently this week, but Friday?s intraday bounce makes me worry they could erase the move Monday. Look for a break below Friday?s low and then jump on board with shorts galore.

Grains
Grains remain in a slight bull mode with strong selling pressure coming in during periods of light intraday volume or end of day position offsets.  This suggests a rollout is occurring with a shift to summer month hedging.  This means that the current bounce may be short and sweet with a selloff occurring Feb-April offering a buy point in a few months.  Those long grains should consider cutting their ties this week and sitting on the sidelines or getting short for a couple of months.  Rice is the standout buy, however, as both technically and fundamentally this market should spike in the coming months.  Calls remain cheap and I recommend getting on board now.

Meats
Cattle continues to build congestion near its recent highs and the market has the setup for a major price move next week.  If I ignore my bearish bias I would say it is setup for a breakout to the upside, but this formation lends itself to volatility in either direction.  My gut says wait for a break below 94 and then get short, otherwise this market is not offering much for us bears.  Hogs had all signs pointing south until this week when it lost some momentum.  Look for some price support next week and this market to hold on a bit longer before breaking down.  Developing put positions during this bounce is highly recommended.

Metals
Gold volatility spiked even more this week as a Thursday breakdown was erased with a Friday surge to bring gold just below its contract highs.  If this market has any chance of making this bear even remotely redeemed it will have to hold $550 and fail hard and fast, otherwise the sky will truly be the limit.  Wait just a second!  I am not flipping here, as a dollar rally is on the way and gold is about to meltdown, but anyone can acknowledge a break above $550 makes a bear?s job of calling a top just about  impossible.  That is why buying puts remains the best play ? cheap, defined risk and patient.  Silver surged to end trading on Friday ? a nearly 10 cent short covering spike just in the last few minutes of trade.  This is a good indication that traders are short covering and buying ahead of a weekend and will likely get caught overloaded to the upside.  Monday is absolutely critical in the metals to establish a top and fail at this technical price point. 

Softs
OJ could see a spike to the upside as this weekend?s frost scare in Florida is just another reason to be long term bullish this commodity.  Moreover, the crop report this upcoming Thursday will create a technical price break.  I recommend long strangles to play the impending volatility.  Coffee broke out this week as news of a less than expected Brazil and S.A. crop forecast has the market back in bull mode.  Monday will either give this market a major run or stop it dead in its tracks 0 the gut says watch out for a major rally here and get on this bandwagon.  Cocoa?s price surge is again met with strong resistance, but Friday?s reemergence suggests the bulls are definitely taking over.  Continue to hold long positions.  Sugar is showing strong signs of topping and the critical long term resistance between 15-16.27 suggests now is the time to stockpile April and July sugar puts.  Cotton is about to get run over on Thursday and I would not be long going into the report.  Buy puts and watch this market melt away.  Lumber is nearing a sell indicator on a long term chart and I would start buying puts around 390.