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Yen-Based Crosses Setup for Another Sell-off
By Jamie Saettele | Published  01/10/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Yen-Based Crosses Setup for Another Sell-off

CAD/JPY - Canadian dollar traders continued to experience full brunt of the yen advance as the cross fell below the psychologically important 100.00 handle and aimed toward 96.69, a level created by the 38.2 Fib of the 83.12-105.20 CAD rally. A sustained downside momentum will most likely see CAD/JPY break below next psychologically important 95.00 figure and test the Loonie bids around 94.09, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the of the 83.12-105.20 CAD rally. Further collapse of the Canadian dollar bids will most likely see the cross extend its decline below the 200-day SMA at 93.25 and land on top of potential support around 92.71, a level marked by August 2 daily high. Indicators are favoring Japanese Yen longs with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side to maneuver.

CHF/JPY - Swiss Franc longs saw the cross bouncing off 89.13, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 84.83-93.46 CHF rally after falling to test  the bids around 88.40, a 200-day SMA. As cross once again heads lower, a further move to the downside will most likely see the CHF/JPY aim for the Swissie bids around 88.13, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib of the 84.83-93.46 CHF rally and with sustained momentum on the part of the Japanese Yen bulls will most likely seeing the CHF/JPY head lower and aim for 87.14, a level created by the September 29 daily low. A further move on the part of the Japanese yen traders will most likely see the Swiss Franc give up more ground as cross collapses toward 86.68, a key 78.6 Fib of the 84.83-93.46 CHF rally. Indicators are favoring Japanese Yen longs with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side to maneuver.

NZD/JPY - New Zealand dollar traders saw the cross stall around 78.96, a 50.0 Fib of the 70.81-87.09 NZD rally after encountering active Kiwi's bids above 78.24, a 200-day SMA. As yen bulls resume their advance, a further move to the downside will most likely see the cross head lower and aim for the New Zealand dollar bids around 77.04, a key 61.8 Fib of the 70.81-87.09 NZD rally, and with sustained momentum seeing the NZD/JPY test potential support around 75.17, a level established by the July 13 daily low and is a gateway to the psychologically important 75.00 handle. Indicators are mixed with momentum indicator below the zero line and positive MACD sloping downward toward the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 31.23 signals an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.