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Forex Economic Alerts for January 11
By John Kicklighter | Published  01/10/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for January 11
  1. Japanese Leading Economic Index / Coincident Economic Index
  2. U.K. British Retail Consortium Shop Price Index

Leading Economic Index (NOV P) (5:00 GMT, 0:00 EST)
Consensus: 60.0%
Previous: 81.0%

Coincident Economic Index (NOV P) (5:00 GMT, 0:00 EST)
Consensus: 66.7%
Previous: 90.0%

Outlook: Japan's leading and coincident economic indexes are scheduled for simultaneous release at 5:00 GMT, on Wednesday. These indexes will reflect changes in Japan's economy by measuring such factors as consumer spending, production, and wages. The coincident economic indicator, a broad measurement used to evaluate current economic conditions, is expected to come in at 66.70 percent.  Industrial production, one of the major components in the coincident indicator, was reported to have increased by 1.4 percent for November, boding well for the upcoming indicator. A useful tool in measuring sentiment and opinion of where Japan is in its business cycle, if the indicator comes in at expectations, it could help support the idea that in fact the island nation is on an economic upturn.  A reading anywhere above the 50 level indicates growth. The leading index is expected to report an increase of 60 percent. This figure is an indicator of the state of the Japanese economy six months in the future. The leading indicator considers variables such as consumer sentiment, current commodities prices, and new housing projects to evaluate how the economy will be doing in about six months or so. November marked an upturn in consumer confidence as it increased to 48.2 from 47.9. Another important factor in determining the leading economic index, the NIKKEI, posted impressive gains of over 10 percent for its composite average of equity holdings. As well yearly housing starts, reported in November, blew out expectations of 7.3 percent on the year, posting an actual figure of 12.6 percent growth. Finally, Japanese household spending, comprising much of the countries' growth, is expected to increase by 0.4 percent, signifying the first increase since august.  All indicators point to growth in Japans current and future economy. If leading and coincident indexes come in at expectations, it could be indicative of strong overall growth in Japans economy and further bring Bank of Japan officials scope to consider an interest rate hike.

Previous: Japans index of leading economic indicators made its 5th straight gain in October. The leading index grew to 103.7 from Septembers 101.6. As well, Japan's coincident economic index increased to 108.8 from September's 107.7. This ongoing growth can be attributed to such factors as exports, consumer spending, and production. Consumer spending, which accounts for half of Japans economy rose above expectations due to higher wages as well as improving job prospects. Although its actual decline was by .1 percent, this was favorable due to an expectation of a .2 percent decline.  As well Japans exports rose in October by 8 percent. Exports to China increased by 12.8 percent, setting a new record. Exports to the US grew by almost 9 percent. Lastly October posted a 0.6 percent gain in industrial production. Production has grown all year and marked a total of a 3 percent gain over the year, from November of 2004. Continuous growth in these indexes reflects a recent economic upturn in Japan's overall economy. This upturn should be reflected by a gradual growth in Japans gross domestic product, as more investors funnel money into Japans revived domestic economy.

British Retail Consortium- Shop Price Index (Dec) (10:00 GMT, 5:00 EST)
Consensus: N/A
Previous: 101.13 

Outlook: The British Retail Consortium has scheduled to release United Kingdom's Shop Price Index for December on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. The figure is highly anticipated as it is a measure of how retailers contribute to inflation in their pricing of commonly sold goods. So far, the shop price index has not regained much of the ground it lost since last year. Prices in shops remain at a lower level then they were, indicating some degree of deflation over the year. However last months increase in shop prices, leaves some hope for December. As well, the retail sales monitor, also reported by the British Retail Consortium recently came in with extremely favorable figures. December reported an increase in retail sales of over 2 percent. Since there is some correlation between increased sales, and increased prices, we could see a similar positive result for the shop price index on Wednesday. Although shop prices are a good indication of inflation, it is unlikely that Britain will consider hiking interest rates until seeing a more longstanding positive trend.

Previous: According to the British Retail Sales Consortium, shop prices in November rose over October's figure, but remained low for the year. The overall index reported at 101.13 for the month of November  - indicating a 0.43 percent gain in shop prices for the month. The key contributor to this gain was a 1.22 percent increase in prices for non-food items. Food prices on the other hand were down almost 1 percent for the month. November's gain is particularly favorable considering that shop prices declined 0.96 percent in October. However there is still concern considering the measure has been unable to match its level last year. Comparatively, the same period a year ago, showed a shop price index of 101.93, which remains 0.8 percent higher then this November's result.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.