EUR/USD - Euro bulls received no break from the advancing greenback longs as the pair continued is descent toward the psychologically important 1.2000 handle. As dollar traders continue to retrace the advance made by the euro longs and push the pair lower, a move below 1.2002, a level marked by 38.2 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally, will most likely see the pair tumble further and break below 1.1950, a 20-day SMA gain downside momentum. Additional gains by the greenback bulls will most likely see EUR/USD extend its decline toward 1.1865, a level created by 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD and with sustained momentum to the downside most likely see the pair aim for the euro bids around 1.1779, a December 30 daily low, thus seeing the greenback set its sights on the psychologically important 1.1500 handle. Indicators are favoring the euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen traders began to slowly retreat to the upside as the pair once again headed toward the psychologically important 115.00 handle following the sharp correction that stalled around 113.71, a July 20 daily high. As the pair heads higher, the next move to the upside will most likely see the USD/JPY move above the psychologically important 115.00 handle and aim toward 116.46, a level established by the January 5 daily high which is further reinforced by the 20-day SMA at 116.31. A further move to the upside will most likely see yen bulls they retreat toward 117.31, a 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-141.46 USD rally, with sustained upside momentum most likely seeing the USD/JPY head higher and test the Japanese yen offers around 118.17, a level created by the December 30 daily high and is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA at 118.00. Indicators are favoring the Japanese Yen longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 37.34, signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while oversold Stochastic gives dollar longs chance to retaliate.
GBP/USD - British pound traders saw the pair tumble below the 1.7600 figure as dollar traders made short work out of the cable bids and pushed the pair toward the psychologically important 1.7500 handle. A move below 1.7500 figure will most likely see the pair gain further downside momentum and with a move below 1.7487, a level established by the January 5 daily high and is reinforced by the 20-day SMA, most likely see the GBP/USD extend its decline toward 1.7393, a 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally, a level further reinforced by the 50-day SMA at 1.7415. A further collapse of the sterling bids will most likely see the dollar traders extend the rally toward 1.7249, a level established by December 2 daily high, breaking of which will most likely open the psychologically important 1.7000 handle as a target of opportunity. Indicators are favoring cable longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc traders remained in disarray after the pair failed to break below the 200-day SMA at 1.2689 and swiftly climbed above 1.2762, a level established 50.0 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. As pair begins to accelerate to the upside, the next move will most likely see the USD/CHF break through the offers around 1.2884, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally with further move to the upside breaking above the 20-day SMA at 1.2974.. A further move above will most likely see the dollar trader's push the pair above the psychologically important 1.3000 handle and take on the 1.3159, a level established by the January 3 daily high and with a further upside momentum most likely seeing Swiss Franc target 1.3283, 2005 High. Indicators are favoring the Swiss Franc longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 27.76, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar traders continued to keep the pair in limbo as price action stalled between 20-day and 50-day SMA's with US dollar longs failing to push the USD/CAD above 1.1700. As US dollar traders once again push the pair above 1.1700, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair USD/CAD higher and with a break above 1.1741, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2733-1.1433 CAD rally, most likely seeing the greenback bulls extend its gains toward 1.1803, a level marked by November 10 daily low. A further move on the part of US dollar traders will most likely see the USDCAD aim toward 1.1927, a level created by the key 38. 2 Fib of the 1.2733-1.1433 CAD rally. Indicators are favoring Canadian dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar longs manage to temporarily stall the advance by the US dollar counterparts as pair stalled around .7503, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A break below the psychologically important .7500 handle will most likely see the AUDUSD head toward .7439, a 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally and with a further move to the downside most likely seeing the pair head lower and aim for .7395, a combination of the 20-day and 50-day SMA's, which currently defends .7362, a level created by the 23.6 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A further collapse of the Australian dollar bids most likely seeing the pair aim for .7321, a level marked by the November 24 daily low. Indicators are supporting Australian dollar longs with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls saw the price action go nowhere fast with the pair continuing to revolve around the .6950 mark. As Kiwi longs failed to push the pair higher as the price continued to reject bids above .6950, a subsequent reversal will most likely see the pair head lower and aim for the Kiwi's bids around .6909, a level created by the 50-day SMA and with a break below aiming for .6871, a 23.6 Fib of the 7468-.6681 USD rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see the greenback bulls push their way lower and test the New Zealand dollar bids around .6781, a level marked by the January 3 daily low. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from the negative MACD, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.