EUR/USD - Euro bulls managed to reverse gains made by their dollar counterparts during the few previous sessions as the price action remains in a tight consolidation range. As single currency continues to reject the offers above 1.2160, a failure by the euro traders to push the pair higher will most likely see dollar longs once again test EUR/USD bids around 1.2115, a level established by the 50 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A further move below will most likely see the pair head lower and descent toward the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, with a move below 1.2002, a level marked by 38.2 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally, most likely seeing the pair tumble further and break below 1.1932, a level marked by the December 28 daily high and is further reinforced by 20-day SMA at 1.1963. Indicators are favoring the euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives the greenback longs a chance to retaliate.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen traders once again pushed the pair below the 114.00 handle and tested bids around 113.71, a July 20 daily high, which stopped the descent during the previous trading session. An inability by the yen bulls to push the pair lower will most likely see USD/JPY head higher and aim toward the psychologically important 115.00 handle and take on the yen offers around 115.53, a level established by the December 5 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and take on the offers around 116.46, a level established by the January 5 daily high and is further reinforced by the 20-day SMA at 116.17. A sustained momentum to the upside will most likely see yen bulls they retreat toward 117.31, a 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-141.46 USD rally. Indicators are favoring the Japanese Yen longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 39.02, signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while both oversold Stochastic and RSI add to the trending outlook.
GBP/USD - British pound traders managed to push back the advancing dollar longs as the pair once again tested the offers around the 1.7700 figure. As price action heats up, the next move will be decisive one because rejection of the offers above 1.7700 will most likely see the pair once again reverse direction and target the bids below the 1.7600 level. A move below 1.7600 figure will most likely see the pair gain further downside momentum and with a break below the psychologically important 1.7500 take on 1.7487, a level established by the January 5 daily high and is reinforced by the 20-day SMA. A further decline toward 1.7393, a 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally, a level further reinforced by the 50-day SMA at 1.7415, will most likely see the greenback extend the rally toward 1.7249, a level established by December 2 daily high, breaking of which will most likely open the psychologically important 1.7000 handle as a target of opportunity. Indicators are favoring cable longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc continued to revolve around 1.2762, a level established 50.0 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally as price action remained in a consolidation phase. As pair begins to climb higher, the next move to the uspdie will most likely see the USD/CHF target the offers around 1.2884, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally with further move on the part of the greenback longs breaking above the 20-day SMA at 1.2974. A sustained momentum to the uspdie will most likely see the dollar trader's push USD/CHF above the psychologically important 1.3000 handle and take on the 1.3159, a level established by the January 3 daily high. Indicators are favoring the Swiss Franc longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 27.76, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar traders managed to push the pair lower and once again broke below the 1.1600 figure during the latest bout of Loonie bullishness. As US dollar traders once again push the pair above 1.1600, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair USD/CAD higher and with a break above 1.1741, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2733-1.1433 CAD rally, most likely seeing the greenback bulls extend its gains toward 1.1803, a level marked by November 10 daily low. A further move on the part of US dollar traders will most likely see the USDCAD aim toward 1.1927, a level created by the key 38.2 Fib of the 1.2733-1.1433 CAD rally. Indicators are favoring Canadian dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar longs once again failed to push the pair above the US dollar offers around .7565, a level established by the key 61.8 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. As pair once again reverses direction, the next move to the downside will most likely see the greenback target .7503, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A break below the psychologically important .7500 handle will most likely see the AUDUSD head lower and aim for .7439, a 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally and with a further move to the downside most likely see the US dollar traders take on .7395, a combination of the 20-day and 50-day SMA's, which currently defends .7362, a level created by the 23.6 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. Indicators are supporting Australian dollar longs with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 27.76, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic gives greenback longs a chance to retaliate.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls once again pushed their luck as they advanced toward the psychologically important .7000 handle only to see the pair stall around .6948, a level established by the combination of the 38.2 Fib of the 7468-.6681 USD rally and 200-day SMA. In case Kiwi longs manage to break to the upside, they will have to contend with US dollar offers around .7038, a level established by the December 8 daily high. However a rejection of the offers around .7000 handle will most likely see the pair reverse direction and once again tumble toward .6912, a 50-day SMA and with a break below take on.6871, a 23.6 Fib of the 7468-.6681 USD rally. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from the negative MACD, while overbought Stochastic gives greenback longs a chance to retaliate.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.