- Japanese Industrial Production
- U.K. Producer Price Index
- U.K. RICS Housing Balance
Japanese Industrial Production (NOV) (4:30 GMT, 23:30 EST)
Consensus: N/A
Previous: 1.4%
Outlook: Japan will release the final revision of its November industrial production report. Industrial production reached record levels in November, as it rose by 1.4 percent marking the fourth consecutive industrial production gain against expectations of a 2 percent rise. Inventories for November increased by 1.5 percent, indicating that companies were preparing to stockpile in preparation for strong demand for the holiday month. Demand for Japanese products is increasing both abroad and at home, and it seems that production is keeping close. Over the year, exports from Japan have risen by 15 percent, achieving a near record surplus of 1.38 trillion yen in October. If industrial production continues to increase, it will add to evidence that the island nation can sustain its longest expansion in eight years.
Previous. October marked an industrial production growth of 0.6 percent from September as shipments increased by almost two percent signifying a stronger reliance on exports. Notably, overseas sales seem to be the underlying factor driving production growth. Over the year Japan's exports increased by 15 percent, to 5.9 trillion yen. Consumer demand increased both abroad and at home. Japans third-largest automaker, Honda, recorded production increases upwards of 5 percent for November. The last time Japan saw a decrease in production was July of 2005, where it declined by 1.2 percent. Since then production has increased by 3.5 percent. Annualized production has increased by 3.3 percent, due to declining production at the beginning of 2005.
U.K. Producer Price Index- Input (DEC) (9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.6%
Previous: 1.4%
Outlook: Analysts speculate that producer prices for inputs will increase by about 0.6 percent for December. On the year, prices have increased by over ten percent, and it seems that Monday's PPI announcement will indicate nothing different for December. Rising oil prices over the year have been the greatest contributor to rising costs. Oil prices decreased in mid December by 6 percent, but shortly after began a slow ascent and are now hovering around 65 dollars a barrel. UK based producers were probably able to cash in for a short while on lower oil prices, explaining why analysts have set a lower expectation for price increase then the previous month. However, the overall trend of increasing prices in the U.K remains troubling. Since consumers are unwilling to pay much more for their goods, the bulk of the cost falls upon the producer. Corus Plc, Britain's biggest steelmaker said its costs rose by 30 percent over the third quarter. Higher costs have been slowly chipping away at profit margins for most producers, and this could be contributing to economic sluggishness. With profits decreasing the producers of the U.K will have no choice but to cut costs elsewhere, and unfortunately this could mean cutting back on workforce. In times where Great Britain is desperately seeking signs of growth in its aggregate economy, high increases in producer prices and lower profit margins are discouraging.
Previous: Prices have been steadily increasing for Britain based producers. In November the producer price index for inputs increased for the second month in a row by 1.4 percent. Raw materials prices look to be the main contributor to escalating input prices. Over the year oil prices had increased by 38 percent, driving up producer costs. In November producers spent almost 20 percent more on fuel purchases then in October. Since June the U.K has seen an underlying trend of higher producer prices. Only one month out of the last six has seen even a slight decline in average prices. July posted the highest increase as producers paid 3.1 percent more for goods then in June. Over the year it is estimated that producer prices for inputs have increased by 12.5 percent.
UK RICS Housing Balance (DEC) (0:01 GMT, 19:01 EST)
Consensus: 8.0%
Previous: 4.0%
Outlook: November marked the first positive move in the Royal Institution of Charted Surveyors report for housing in 15 months. The anticipation of higher housing price balance could be brought on by the effects of the Bank of England's August interest rate cut. Further speculation of interest rates to drop from 4.5 percent early in 2006 could also be increasing housing prices due to a rise in consumption as the cost of money is anticipated to decline. Overall, housing prices rose 3 percent in 2005 and the Nationwide House Price Index saw a fourth consecutive improvement in December, up 0.5 percent. Along with housing price balance, RICS anticipates mortgage approvals to improve in 2006 to 1.336 million, after a five-year low of 1.127 million. Comprised of 6 percent of the England's output, should RICS come out higher than expected, a boost in the construction industry is likely to reap the benefits. Along with the RICS report, PPI, CPI, and wage data all due out next week, if results are positive, this may lessen the risk of falling interest rates and lead to appreciation in the pound. Nevertheless, if RICS and labor market news report negatively, this may influence the Bank of England's stance on interest rates.
Previous: After disappointing results for more than a year, November's RICS report showed signs of emerging out of the 2004 housing doldrums. Experiencing the slowest growth in 13 years, the Bank of England cut interest rates to 4.5 percent in August, which helped revive the $6 trillion property market. However, in December, consumer confidence dropped 10 points to 91 while inflation has remained steady above the 2 percent target rate in 2005. As England housing market may be improving, consumer consumption continues to lag. It is likely that until economic data consistently sways in one direction, the Bank of England will keep interest rates at 4.5 percent.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.