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Euro Continues to Range Trade
By Jamie Saettele | Published  01/16/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Continues to Range Trade

EUR/JPY - Euro bulls manage to temporarily stall the advance of the Japanese yen longs as cross found active bids around 137.11, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 130.62-141.61 EUR rally. As single currency traders retrace part of the yen rally, a pullback toward 139.78, a level marked by the 50-day SMA will most likely provide the prospective yen bulls with an opportunity to establish fresh EUR/JPY shorts. A subsequent reversal will most likely see EUR/JPY break below 138.65, a level created by the 38.2 Fib of the 130.62-141.61 EUR rally and with sustained downside momentum aiming for the bids around 137.11, a 50.0 Fib of the 130.62-141.61 EUR rally. A further collapse of the single currency bids will most likely see the cross head through the 200-day SMA at 136.86 and aim toward the psychologically important 135.00 handle, a level protected by the 61.8 Fib of the 130.62-141.61 EUR rally at 135.56. Indicators are signaling trending conditions with ADX above 25 at 28.54, with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while both neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

EUR/CHF - Euro remains confined to a large trading range that dominated the price action since June with the cross failing to break below the 1.5406, a level created by the January 6 daily low. A failure to test the ranges lower boundary will most likely see the cross head higher,  and with a swing to the upside most likely seeing EUR/CHF test the Swissie offers above the psychologically important 1.5500 handle at 1.5524, a level established by 23.6 Fib of the 1.5079-1.5661 EUR rally A further collapse of the Swiss Franc offers will most likely see the cross head higher and take on 1.5372, a level marked by the October 18 daily high, and with sustained momentum seeing the cross test the Swissie defenses around 1.5628, an August 5 daily high. Indicators are favoring Swiss Franc longs with both momentum indicator and MACD d below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side to maneuver.

EUR/GBP - Euro continues to trade within a large trading range that dominated the price action since the middle of August with the latest swing to the downside failing to break the bids above the .6800 figure as level is heavily defended by the combination of the key 38.2 Fib of the .7106-.6609 GBP rally and 50-day and 200-day SMA's. In case the euro longs gain an upper hand, a move above .6858, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the .7106-.6609 GBP rally will most likely see the cross head higher and aim for .6916, a level created by the 61.8 Fib of the .7106-.6609 GBP rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the euro traders push the cross toward .6968, a level established by August 5 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see EUR/GBP head higher and with sustained momentum take on the pond offers around the psychologically important .7000 handle, a level marked by 78.6 Fib of the .7106-.6609 GBP rally. Indicators are favoring the euro longs with both momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.