EUR/USD - Euro remains in a tight consolidation range with neither side managing to gain momentum as action continues to revolve around 1.2115, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A move by the greenback traders will most likely see EUR/USD head toward the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. However in case euro bulls manage to break above 1.2192, a level created by the 200-day SMA, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair extend its gains toward 1.2262, a level marked by the key 61.8 Fib of the of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. Indicators are favoring euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line while ADX above 25 at 25.37, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give the pair enough room to maneuver.
USD/JPY - Japanese Yen bulls failed to stave of the dollar's advance as pair once again headed above the psychologically important 115.00 handle. As dollar bulls reestablish their dominance over the price action, a sustained move above the psychologically important 115.00 handle will most likely see the greenback longs test the offers around 115.53, a level established by the December 28 daily high. A sustained momentum to the upside will most likely see the greenback bulls take on the yen offers around 116.46, a level established by the January 5 daily high and is further reinforced by the 20-day SMA at 115.86. However in case greenback bulls lose their footing, a move below 113.71, a level established by the July 20 daily high will most likely see the Japanese yen resume its downward momentum. Indicators are favoring the Japanese Yen longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 40.27, signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while oversold Stochastic adds to the trending outlook.
GBP/USD - British pound bulls managed to stop the surprising attack launched by the greenback counterparts as pair failed to break below 1.7604, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. As both sides continue to vie for the dominance, a move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and with a move above 1.7774, a level established 50.0 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally will most likely see GBP/USD head above the 200-day SMA at 1.7899 and aim for the psychologically important 1.8000 handle, a level defended by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally at 1.7945. However in case the dollar longs manage to wrest control from the pound bulls and push the pair lower, a move below 1.7604, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally, will most likely see the greenback longs extend their gains below the psychologically important 1.7500 handle and take on 1.7487, a level established by the January 5 daily high and is reinforced by the 20-day SMA at 1.7473. Indicators are favoring cable longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives dollar longs a chance to reverse direction.
USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls continued to engage dollar longs as neither side managed to establish the dominance over the price action. As USD/CHF remains confined to a narrow trading range, a further move on the part of the greenback bulls will most likely see the pair head higher and test the Swiss Franc offers around 1.2885, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see dollar traders push the pair toward the psychologically important 1.3000 handle and with a move above take on the Swissie offers around 1.3037, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. However in case the Swiss Franc traders manage to push the pair below 1.2700, a level defended by the 200-day SMA, a further move to the downside will most likely see USD/CHF test the greenback bids around 1.2638, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. Indicators are favoring the Swiss Franc longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 30.07, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while oversold Stochastic gives dollar longs a chance to retaliate.
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar continues to trader within a narrow trading range as neither side managed to launch a decisive. As US dollar traders cement their bids below 1.1600, a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair higher and with a break above 1.1700 figure take on the Loonie offers around 1.1741, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2733-1.1433 CAD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the greenback bulls extend their gains toward 1.1803, a level marked by November 10 daily low. A sustained momentum on the part of US dollar traders will most likely see the USDCAD aim toward 1.1927, a level created by the key 38.2 Fib of the 1.2733-1.1433 CAD rally, which currently acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.2000 handle. Indicators are favoring Canadian dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls once again found themselves below the psychologically important .7500 handle as the pair slipped below the 50.0 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see the AUD/USD head lower and aim for .7439, a 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally and with a sustained momentum to the downside most likely seeing US dollar trader test the bids around .7406, a combination of the 20-day and 50-day SMA's. However in case the Aussie traders manage to gain an upper hand, a move above .7563, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally will most likely see AUD/USD head higher and aim for .7654, a level created by the 78.6 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. Indicators are supporting Australian dollar longs with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 26.11, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic gives greenback longs a chance to retaliate.
NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls tumbled like a rock with the pair falling below the .6900 handle after failing to break above the psychologically important .7000 handle, a level defended by the 38.2 Fib of the 7468-.6681 USD rally and 200-day SMA. As Kiwi reverses direction and NZD/USD heads lower, a move below .6871, a 23.6 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally, will most likely see the pair test Kiwi's offers around .6853, a level established by the 20-day SMA. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and test the bids around .6781, a level created January 3 daily low and with a break below most likely target .6686, a level marked by the 2005 Low and is currently acting as a gateway toward the psychologically important .6500 handle. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from the negative MACD, while overbought Stochastic gives greenback longs a chance to retaliate.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.