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US Dollar Loses Its Luster
By Jamie Saettele | Published  01/23/2006 | Currency | Unrated
US Dollar Loses Its Luster

EUR/USD - Euro bulls staged a sharp rally as the pair climb above the 1.2200 figure during the latest bout of the anti-dollar bearishness. As single currency continues to head higher a further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and with a move above 1.2286, a level established by the August 15 daily high, targeting the greenback offers around 1.2385, a level defended by the key 78.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the euro longs will most likely see the EUR/USD head higher and with a move above the 1.2400 figure targeting 1.2486, a level marked by the September 12 daily high and is currently acting as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.2500 handle. Indicators are favoring euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives dollar longs a chance to retaliate.

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen traders once again pushed the pair below the psychologically important 115.00 handle after USD/JPY failed to break above the 20-day SMA at 115.66. As yen bulls once again test the dollar bids below 115.00 figure, a break below the 114.00 level will most likely see the pair head lower and test the greenback defenses around 113.43, a level established by the January 12 daily low. A further move on the part of the yen bull will most likely see the pair extend its decline toward 112.76, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 112.448. A sustained downside momentum will most likely see USD/JPY aim for 111.78, a level marked by the August 31 daily high. Indicators are favoring the Japanese Yen longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 39.40, signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give the pair enough room to maneuver.

GBP/USD - British pound bulls followed other majors against the dollar with the pair heading above 1.7774, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. As sterling longs push the pair higher, a break above 1.7881, a level established by the 200-day SMA will most likely see the pair target the psychologically important 1.8000 handle, a level defended by the key 61.8 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally/ A further move above the 1.8000 figure will most likely see the pair gain upside momentum and target the greenback bids around 1.8129, a level defended by the September 21daily high. Indicators are favoring cable longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives dollar longs a chance to retaliate.

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls managed to push the pair below 1.2700 figure as greenback traders failed stave off the sudden attack launched by the Swissie longs. As USD/CHF heads lower a sustained break below 1.2641, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally, will most likely see the pair head lower and target the dollar bids around 1.2532, a level marked by the September 14 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the Swiss Franc longs advance below the psychologically important 1.2500 handle and aim for 1.2463, a level created by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the Swissie bulls will most likely see the pair stall around 1.2240, a level established by the September 5 daily high, and with subsequent reversal targeting the 1.2500 figure. Indicators are favoring the Swiss Franc longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 30.00, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar longs took everyone by surprise as they pushed the pair toward the psychologically important 1.1500 handle. As price action remains volatile, a break below 1.1500 will most likely see the Loonie longs decline further and target the greenback bids around 1.1433, a level established by the December 14 daily low. A further break to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and with a move below 1.1300 figure targeting potential support at 1.1272, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib Extension of the May-Oct CAD rally. A further move on the part of the Loonie longs will most likely see the USD/CAD extend its decline toward the psychologically important 1.1000 handle, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib Extension of the May-Oct CAD rally at 1.1080. Indicators are favoring Canadian dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls once again headed toward the psychologically important .7500 handle after the pair failed to reach the Aussie bids around .7439, a 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head above .7564, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA at .7557, and target US dollar offers around .7654, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head higher and stall around .7729, a level defended by the September 29 daily high. Indicators are supporting Australian dollar longs with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls continued to hold the .6800 figure as pair stalled above .6781, a level established by the January 3 daily low. As Kiwi heads higher, a move above .6873, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the.5914-.7466 NZD rally will most likely see the NZd/USD once again gain momentum and with a further move to the upside most likely targeting .6916, a level defended 50-day SMA. A sustained momentum on the part of the New Zealand dollar longs will most likely see the pair head above .6981, a level created by the 200-day SMA, and is currently acting as a gateway toward the psychologically important .7000 handle. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from the negative MACD, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.