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Euro-Based Currency Crosses Remain in Range
By Jamie Saettele | Published  01/23/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro-Based Currency Crosses Remain in Range

EUR/JPY - Euro bulls manage to push the cross above the psychologically important 140.00 handle, only to see the momentum of their initial advance stall around 140.60, a level defended by the 23.6 Fib of the 130.62-141.61 EUR rally. As Japanese yen traders once again push the pair lower a move below 139.28-139.95 zone, a potential support created by the combination of the 50-day and 20-day SMA's will most likely see the cross extend its decline below 138.69 38.2 Fib of the 130.62-141.61 EUR rally. A further move to the downside will most likely see the cross test the bids around 137.11, a 50.0 Fib of the 130.62-141.61 EUR rally and with further collapse of the single currency defenses will most likely seeing EUR/JPY head through the 200-day SMA. Indicators are mixed, with positive momentum indicator diverging from negative MACD, while both neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

EUR/CHF - Euro remains confined to a large trading range that dominated the price action since June with the cross failing to break above the 1.5523, a level created by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.5079-1.5661 EUR rally. A failure to test the ranges upper boundary will most likely see the cross head lower, and with a swing to the downside most likely seeing EUR/CHF test the euro bids below 1.5438, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.5079-1.5661 EUR rally. A further collapse of the single currency defenses will most likely see the cross head lower and take on 1.5372, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.5079-1.5661 EUR rally, and with sustained momentum seeing the cross test the euro's defenses around 1.5300, a level defended by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.5079-1.5661 EUR rally. Indicators are favoring Swiss Franc longs with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side to maneuver.

EUR/GBP - Euro continues to trade within a large trading range that dominated the cross since the middle of August with the latest price action stalling around .6858, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the .7106-.6609 GBP rally. A move to the upside will most likely see the cross head higher and with a move above the .6900 figure aim for .6916, a level created by the 61.8 Fib of the .7106-.6609 GBP rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the euro traders push the cross toward .6968, a level established by August 5 daily high. A sustained upside momentum will most likely see EUR/GBP head higher and with sustained momentum take on the pond offers around the psychologically important .7000 handle, a level marked by 78.6 Fib of the .7106-.6609 GBP rally. Indicators are favoring the euro longs with both momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.