I hope everyone had a happy and safe holiday weekend.  After a strong week of volatility due to reactions from last Tuesday's FOMC meeting and a breakdown in oil prices, the markets should stabilize to a degree this week.  Volume should resume in full effect on Tuesday.  The attention will now be on the US dollar and whether or not the oil markets will continue to exhibit the ferocious selling it did last week.  While I remain a strong dollar bull, and the dollar did break significant resistance at 8365 last week, I would be shocked if we had anywhere near the upside this week as we did last week (Friday being the possible exception).  That said, a strong up day today or two mediocre up days between today and tomorrow would be a short term signal to exit any bear foreign currency plays that are for short term time frames.  Moreover, gold has had a bit of an under reaction to the recent currency moves and might play catch-up so don't be fooled and wait at least a few days to jump on the bear metals play.

Recommended Trades and Market Calls

US Dollar Index
We got our breakout, but the market is ahead of itself and should have a mildly bullish week, and thus there will be a better entry point in the near future.  Resistance lies between 8431-8471 with additional resistance at 8535 and 8550 - although it shouldn't get there this week.  Those playing the long term bull run should buy on all dips regardless of the near term outlook.  Additionally, the unemployment report on Friday is expected to be bullish so it might be a quick pause before the breakout to the upside occurs.

Gold
My target entry point on bear gold is 432-435 and I would highly recommend an aggressive defined risk synthetic short futures here by selling a June 440 call and buying a 460 call (to protect).  Use the premium collected to buy a June 420 put.  If you wait for a rally to my target entry this trade should receive a credit of around $200.

T-Bonds
The market showed its true colors last week and more downside should be expected.  I recommend June put bear put spreads with Friday's unemployment report offering true potential for a major breakdown in bond prices.

Live Cattle
Thursday's low volume spike doesn't put a dent in the outlook - sell futures with stops at 90.45 (April) or buy puts/put spreads (June).

Sugar
A big time short with gap down confirmation today.  Buy inexpensive May 850  puts for a long shot play that could offer a great ROI on a cheap investment.   Otherwise short futures with a May 900 call in place of a stop.

Crude Oil
Must stay below 56.00 to remain bearish, and a break to new lows by mid-week for continued momentum, but the gut says it has a good shot of following through on this breakdown.  Puts remain cheap, but the real play here is selling credit call spreads to pay for a NTM put.

Key Reports, Important Option Expirations and Futures Info

Traders are still on vacation today, but volume should show back up tomorrow with consumer confidence report in the AM setting the tone for volatility this week.  Wednesday's GDP report is a Q4 final revision versus next month is Q1 for this year (more important), but since Q4 is year end final data for '04 it will be significant if it is off from estimates.  The grain stocks and prospective plantings figures along with export data on Wednesday is the tell all for the near term in grains.  History tells us these retracements never hold for too long without a real bounce, but is the retracement really over?  The gut says another leg down in grains is not out of the question if it happens quickly, and thus this report could be a catalyst for setting a bottom before trending significantly higher throughout the spring and early summer.  Cotton report is big for by bearish outlook, so if you want to get into some cheap puts, you might want to do it before Tuesday's close as it may be your last chance.  The big unemployment report on Friday should resume last week's major bond price action and send the bull bond traders reeling - look for bullish data and a bear break in bonds.

All Times Eastern Time Zone.

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James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.