The Wagner Daily ETF Report For May 6 |
By Deron Wagner |
Published
05/6/2013
|
Stocks
|
Unrated
|
|
The Wagner Daily ETF Report For May 6
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, small-cap Russell 2000, and S&P Midcap 400 indices all finished at fresh ALL-TIME HIGHS last week. The Nasdaq Composite is not at a record high, but is trading at its highest level since late 2000. It has undoubtedly been an extremely resilient market in recent months, as even several streaks of higher volume selling among institutional traders were subsequently absorbed by the bulls each time.
After extensively screening the markets over the weekend, we observed there are presently very few actionable ETF swing trade setups with a positive reward-risk ratio. This is because ETFs with the most relative strength are overextended beyond near-term support levels, making for high-risk entries near current prices. Conversely, most ETFs that have not yet broken out could be said to have relative weakness and should be avoided.
Overall, we continue to see the most leadership in the Nasdaq. For several weeks, we have been highlighting the sector rotation back into the tech-heavy index, and that remains the place to be. Our position in Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF ($SMH) continues to act well and is presently trading at a new multi-year high. Although it may pull back in the near-term, we intend to hold through any quick correction because the next significant resistance is not until the $40 area (about 6% higher than its current price). Remember that consistently profitable trading is about holding the winners as long as possible when you're right, while quickly closing out losing positions that hit their predetermined stop prices when you're wrong.
Aside from tech-related ETFs like $SMH, another group showing leadership is international ETFs. More specifically, select emerging markets in Asia are the top dogs. We remain long iShares Indonesia Fund ($EIDO), which pulled back in the latter half of last week, but is now sitting near support of its prior breakout level. The iShares Thailand Index ($THD) demonstrated similar price action, and we are monitoring it on our internal watchlist for possible buy entry in the coming days. The iShares Philippines Index ($EPHE) remains incredibly strong, but is rather extended from price support on its weekly chart.
At current price levels, swing traders generally need to already be positioned on the long side of the market OR need to patiently wait for a bit of a correction in the broad market. Fortunately, our model trading portfolio already has healthy exposure to the market with a mix of ETFs and stocks, most of which are presently showing solid unrealized gains.
In recent weeks, we've observed that many traders have not believed in the strength of the market, and thus have been sitting on the sidelines while stocks were ripping to new highs. However, Wagner Daily subscribers who have been following our actions have indeed been participating in the market's recent gains. We can thank our rule-based market timing system for this, as it always forces us to objectively react to price action, rather than attempt to predict it. Put another way, our strategy for timing the market helps us to trade what we see, not what we think.
Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Trader of both Morpheus Capital LP, a U.S. hedge fund, and MorpheusTrading.com, a trader education firm.
|