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Dollar Temporarily Stalls Majors
By Jamie Saettele | Published  01/24/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Dollar Temporarily Stalls Majors

EUR/USD - Euro bulls consolidated gains attained during the previous trading session as price action stalled below the 1.2300 figure during the latest anti-dollar rally. As single currency traders continue to push the pair higher a further move above 1.2286, a level established by the August 12 daily high, will most likely see EUR/USD target the dollar offers around 1.2385, a level defended by the key 78.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the euro longs will most likely see the EUR/USD head higher and with a move above the 1.2400 figure targeting 1.2486, a level marked by the September 12 daily high and is currently acting as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.2500 handle. Indicators are favoring euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, ADX is above 25 at 27.49 signaling an existence of trend not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic gives dollar longs a chance to retaliate.

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen continued to bounce in a tight trading range with the pair remaining confined to a 38.2 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally. As yen bulls once again test the dollar bids below 115.00 figure, a break below the 114.00 level will most likely see the pair head lower and test the greenback defenses around 113.43, a level established by the January 12 daily low. A further move on the part of the yen bull will most likely see the pair extend its decline toward 112.76, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 112.448. A sustained downside momentum will most likely see USD/JPY aim for 111.78, a level marked by the August 31 daily high. Indicators are favoring the Japanese Yen longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 39.82, signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give the pair enough room to maneuver.

GBP/USD - British pound bulls continued to head higher only to see the momentum of their advance stall around 1.7874, a level defended by the 200-day SMA. As sterling longs regroup and push the pair higher, a break above 1.7874, a 200-day SMA will most likely see the pair target the psychologically important 1.8000 handle, a level defended by the key 61.8 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. A further move above the 1.8000 figure will most likely see the pair gain upside momentum and target the greenback bids around 1.8098, a level defended by the August 26 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair stall around 1.8190, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally Indicators are favoring cable longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives dollar longs a chance to retaliate.

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls managed to push the pair below 1.2641, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally, but failed to breaks the greenback bids around 1.2532, a level marked by the September 14 daily low. As Swissie traders once again try to push the pair lower, a further move to the downside will most likely see the Swiss Franc longs head below the psychologically important 1.2500 handle and aim for 1.2463, a level created by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the Swissie bulls will most likely see the pair stall around 1.2240, a level established by the September 5 daily high, and with subsequent reversal targeting the 1.2500 figure. Indicators are favoring the Swiss Franc longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 31.48, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar longs continued to consolidate their recent gains above the psychologically important 1.1500 handle. As price action remains volatile, a break below 1.1500 will most likely see the Loonie longs decline further and target the greenback bids around 1.1433, a level established by the December 14 daily low. A further break to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and with a move below 1.1300 figure targeting potential support at 1.1266, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib Extension of the May-Oct CAD rally. A further move on the part of the Loonie longs will most likely see the USD/CAD extend its decline toward the psychologically important 1.1000 handle, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib Extension of the May-Oct CAD rally at 1.1074. Indicators are favoring Canadian dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls continued to bounce around the psychologically important .7500 handle, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head above .7564, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA at .7557, and target US dollar offers around .7654, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and stall around .7729, a level defended by the September 29 daily high. However in case the pair fails to reach .7564, a subsequent reversal will most likely see the US dollar longs test the Aussie bids around .7439, a 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally.  Indicators are supporting Australian dollar longs with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls failed to hold the .6800 figure as pair once again headed below .6781, a level established by the January 3 daily low. As Kiwi heads lower, a move below .6741, a level marked by the November 8 daily low rally will most likely see the NZD/USD once again gain momentum and with a further move to the downside most likely targeting .6690, a level defended 50.0 Fib of the.5914-.7466 NZD. A sustained momentum on the part of the US dollar longs will most likely see the pair head below .6615, a level created by the July 19, 2004 daily high, and is currently acting as a gateway toward the psychologically important .6500 handle. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator diverging from the negative MACD, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.