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Friday Decline Deters Strong Intraday Trends on Monday
By Toni Hansen | Published  01/24/2006 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Friday Decline Deters Strong Intraday Trends on Monday

Good morning! After last Friday's speedy plunge, the new week got off to a slow start on Monday. Many bulls were too scared to jump right back into the thick of things, while the bears didn't appear too certain as to just how much further south it could go without at least correcting on the 15 minute charts. This quagmire left the market to open near Friday's closing prices and landed the indices right smack in the middle of a trading range on the 5 and 15 minute charts that would persist throughout the day.

The NASDAQ showed a little more relative weakness in the morning than the S&P500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. A rapid bout of selling in that index out of the 9:45 ET reversal period led to a break in Friday's lows, while the other two held them. After just 15 minutes the situation began to turn around. The indices bounced back into the 5 minute 20 sma intraday, fell into triangle on the 5 minute charts and pushed slowly higher out of that triangle soon after the 11:00 ET reversal period.

The steady but gradual upside into noon came to a halt going into the 12:00 ET reversal period. This is a typical time for mid-day pivots to occur and it held very well this time around. The market had managed to make it back up into the middle of that mid-afternoon range from Friday, which served as resistance, but a lack of significant volume and momentum helped it stall and hold at those levels. The reaction to the resistance was rapid and the indices quickly fell past the 5 and 15 minute 20 sma with scarcely a second glance.

As the day continued, the indices remained stuck in the range established by the morning trading activity. Volume continued to decline into the afternoon as the range narrowed. They ended the day rather close the middle of the 15 minute range. The somewhat rounded lows made on the 15 minute charts bring with them concerns from the bears that the market will round off and turn back higher into Tuesday. The pace without the range does not yet favor that, because the downward moves within the range were slowing down.

Intraday along the charts look lower. They are forming nice triangle patterns on the 15 minute chart. The rounded lows will also harbor bulls who got trapped buying new lows and are just holding on. Pace can also be in issue in terms of the reward for any breakdown, because it increases the risk that the market will set a trap upon breaking the trend channel of the triangle only to reverse and head the opposite direction. I'll be keeping these things in the forefront of my mind heading into Tuesday.

Note: As this earnings season progresses, be sure to pay closer attention to when earnings are due for any open positions you may have. While there are exceptions, it can be quite dangerous holding a shorter term position into an earnings announcement.

Economic Reports and Events
Jan 24: -
Jan 25: Crude Inventories 01/20 (10:30 am)
Jan 26: Durable Orders for Dec (8:30 am), Initial Claims 01/21 (8:30 am), Help-Wanted Index for Dec (10:00 am)
Jan 27: Chain Deflator-Adv. For Q4 (8:30 am), GDP-Adv. For Q4 (8:30 am), New Home Sales for Dec (10:00 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Jan 24: MMM (B), ADTN (?), AGR (?), AAI (B), AKS (?), BJS (?), EAT (B), BNI (B), CA (?), CTX (A), CKFR (A), COH (B), GLW (A), CSX (?), DD (B), EMC (B), EXTR (A), GDW (?), HMA (B), JNJ (B), KMB (B), LAB (B), LXK (B), LU (B), NFLX (?), NOC (B), PPP (?), RFMD (A), RYL (A), STLD (?), STM (A), SUNW (4:30 pm ET), NYT (B), TMA (A), TDW (B), UTX (B), ZION (A)
Jan 25: ABT (B), APD (B), ATI (B), ALTR (?), AHC (B), ABC (B), AMTD (?), AMCC (A), ASH (08:00 am ET), ADP (B), AVT (?), BLS (B), BMY (?), ELY (A), CHIR (4:45 pm ET), CRUS (A), CL (?), CNXT (?), COP (?), DRE (A), EXC (B), FIC (A), FBN (?), GD (B), HRS (A), HXL (A), INGR (A), IFIN (A), JNPR (?), KOMG (?), LEA (B), LSI (?), MXIM (A), NYB (B), NCX (B), NVLS (?), PMTC (B), PMCS (A), PLCM (?), PX (B), QCOM (?), ROK (?), SAP (B), SLAB (B), SSTI (A), SWKS (A), SSCC (B), STJ (?), SWFT (A), HSY (B), MHP (B), VAR (A), WLP (06:00 am ET), XRX (B))
Jan 26: AFFX (?), ALK (?), AMGN (08:00 am ET), ANDW (?), T (07:30 am ET), AVID (A), BAX (?), BEBE (?), BDX (B), BOW (B), BRCM (A), BC (B), CAH (B), CAT (B), CLS (?), CELG (?), CPWR (A), ED (?), CY (B), DHR (B), DTAS (A), D (B), DOV (A), DJ (B), EMN (A), LLY (?), ELX (?), EQT (B), FII (4:00pm ET), FDC (?), FDRY (A), BEN (?), GM (B), GNTX (?), GFI (?), HIG (A), HON (B), ICOS (?), NDE (B), INFA (A), IR (B), IDTI (A), IRF (A), JNS (B), KEM (B), KLAC (?), KLIC (B), LSCC (A), LEG (A), LMT (B), LYO (B), MRO (?), MEE (A), MCK (A), MWV (B), MENT (A), ,SCC (?), MSFT (?), MLNM (B), NWL (B), NE (B), NOK (?), ORI (?), OPWV (?), PKTR (A), PLAY (A), POT (?), DGX (B), RBAK (?), COL (B), SNDK (A), SHW (?), SO (B), SYK (A), SU (?), TLAB (B), TEN (B), DOW (B), TSM (08:00 am ET), UIS (B), UPS (B), VSEA (A), VRSN (?), VZ (B), WDC (?)
Jan 27: BDK (B), CVX (B), FPL (?), HAL (?), MAN (B), NUE (?), PG (B), UCBH (?)
Jan 30: ATHR (4:00 pm ET), CHKP (B), CMI (B), EK (B), XOM (?), FISV (A), KFT (A), MAT (B), RSAS (A), SGP (B), SII (B), SYY (?), TSN (B), UNM (A), ZMH (A)
Jan 31: ACE (A), ADPT (?), ASD (B), ARTG (?), CCJ (?), CB (A), CIN (?), CEG (?), CAM (B), COCO (B), CFC (B), CYMI (A), ELN (B), ETR (B), FLEX (A), GOOG (?), HLT (B), ITW (08:00 am ET), RX (B), ISSX (A), JBLU (B), K (B), MRK (B), SEPR (B), SIE (A), SGTL (A), STN (?), SYMC (?), TE (B), ERICY (01:30 am ET), ALL (A), X (?), VLO (?), WYE (?), ZHNE (A)
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.