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Another Up-Day, But Anticipating Another Leg Down in Stock Market
By Harry Boxer | Published  01/24/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Another Up-Day, But Anticipating Another Leg Down in Stock Market

We had another upday but the indices spent most of the day meandering sideways and vacillating after a very strong start.  However, the overall patterns still look enthusiastic and potentially bearish, and Iââ,¬â"¢m anticipating another leg down.

The day started out with a strong move up.  They got to the session highs on the NDX, then pulled down and retested the opening gaps and then bounced around for a few hours, before an afternoon rally try.  They made nominal new highs on the S&P and Dow but failed to do so on the NDX, then rolled over for the last 1-1 1/4 hours.

Net on the day, the Dow managed to get back over 10,700, closing at 10,712, up 23 1/2.  The S&P 500 was up 3, the NDX 10 and the SOX up about 5 and change.

The technicals were solid by better than 2 to 1 on New York and a little less than 2 to 1 on Nasdaq.  Up/down volume was almost 2 to 1 as well on New York.  Total volume was 1.85 billion, rather heavy.  Nasdaq traded over 2 billion with about a 4 to 3 positive ratio.

TheTechTrader.com board was mostly higher, led once again by the alternative energy stocks.  Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) was up a whopping 2.92, closing at a new all-time high of 57.08.  DayStar Technologies (DSTI) in that group was up 69 cents, and Evergreen Solar (ESLR) up 17 cents, although that was well off the earlier high.

Other stocks of note, NovAtel (NGPS) was up 2.01.  Neoware Systems (NWRE), one of our portfolio stocks, up 90 cents.  Applied Signal (APSG), one of our recent Charts of the Week, was up 89 cents.  Dynamic Materials Corp. (BOOM) advanced 33 cents and is pushing near its all-time highs. Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) snapped back 41 cents, Viisage (VISG) 46 cents, and Broadcom (BRCM) 84 cents in the large-cap sector.

On the downside, Phazar (ANTP) gave back 72 cents, MakeMusic (MMUS) 49 cents, and Stereotaxis (STXS) down 64 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, right now we're anticipating the potential of a fifth and final leg down in the overall decline since the tops back in mid-January before we get a more substantial rally.

Current key support at 1670 NDX and 1260-61 S&P, if broken, could lead to a test of the next support zone on the measured move down near the 1635-45 zone on the NDX and the 1245-50 zone on the S&P.

Good trading!

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a FREE 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.