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Dollar Keeps Major Curriencies in Tight Range
By Jamie Saettele | Published  01/26/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Dollar Keeps Major Curriencies in Tight Range

EUR/USD - Euro bulls remained on the sidelines as price action remained non-existent. As single currency longs resume their advance and push the pair higher, a move above 1.2286, a level established by the August 12 daily high, will most likely see EUR/USD target the dollar offers around 1.2385, a level reinforced by the key 78.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A further upside momentum on the part of the euro bulls will most likely see the pair head higher and with a move above the 1.2400 figure targeting 1.2486, a level marked by the September 12 daily high and is currently acting as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.2500 handle. Indicators are favoring euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, ADX is above 25 at 29.52 signaling an existence of trend not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic adds to the trending outlook.

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen once again retreated above the psychologically important 115.00 handle, but managed to stall the dollar advance below the 116.00 level. As yen bulls once again push the dollar below 115.00 figure, a break below the 114.00 level will most likely see the pair head lower and test the greenback defenses around 113.43, a level established by the January 12 daily low. A further move on the part of the yen longs will most likely see the pair extend its decline toward 112.76, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the 104.16-121.46 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 112.448. A further downside momentum will most likely see USD/JPY aim for 111.78, a level marked by the August 31 daily high. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator above the zero line and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 36.64, signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give the pair enough room to maneuver.

GBP/USD - British pound bulls continued to bounce around 1.7874, a level defended by the 200-day SMA. As sterling longs break above 1.7900 figure, their next move to the upside will most likely see the pair target the psychologically important 1.8000 handle, a level defended by the key 61.8 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. A further move above the 1.8000 figure will most likely see the pair gain upside momentum and target the greenback bids around 1.8098, a level defended by the August 26 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair stall around 1.8190, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally Indicators are favoring cable longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 25.01, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one while overbought Stochastic gives dollar longs a chance to retaliate.

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls continued to run in circles as pair remained within a vicinity of 1.2641, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally, and once again began their advance toward 1.2532, a level marked by the September 14 daily low. As Swiss Franc traders once again push the pair lower, a further downside momentum will most likely see the Swissie longs head below the psychologically important 1.2500 handle and aim for 1.2463, a level created by the 78.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the Swissie bulls will most likely see the pair stall around 1.2240, a level established by the September 5 daily high, and with subsequent reversal targeting the 1.2500 figure. Indicators are favoring the Swiss Franc longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 32.88, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while oversold Stochastic adds to a trending outlook.

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar longs remained on the sidelines as pair continued to tread sideways along the psychologically important 1.1500 handle. As price action remains volatile, a break below 1.1500 will most likely see the USD/CAD extend its decline and target the greenback bids around 1.1433, a level established by the December 14 daily low. A further break to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and with a move below 1.1300 figure targeting potential support at 1.1266, a level marked by the 61.8 Fib Extension of the May-Oct CAD rally. A further move on the part of the Loonie longs will most likely see the USD/CAD extend its decline toward the psychologically important 1.1000 handle, a level defended by the 78.6 Fib Extension of the May-Oct CAD rally at 1.1074. Indicators are favoring Canadian dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls continued to advance higher with pair testing the offers around .7550, a level marked by the 200-day SMA. A further move to the upside most likely seeing AUD/USD head above .7564, a level established by the 61.8 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA at .7557. A sustained move on the part of the Aussie longs will most likely target US dollar offers around .7654, a level marked by the 78.6 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and stall around .7729, a level defended by the September 29 daily high. However in case the pair fails to reach .7564, a subsequent reversal will most likely see the US dollar longs test the Aussie bids around .7439, a 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally.  Indicators are supporting Australian dollar longs with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls managed to push the pair above .6873, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the.5914-.7466 NZD rally, with a further move to the upside most likely seeing the NZD/USD once again gain momentum and target .6916, a level defended 50-day SMA. A sustained momentum on the part of the New Zealand dollar longs will most likely see the pair head above .6981, a level created by the 200-day SMA, and is currently acting as a gateway toward the psychologically important .7000 handle. .  Indicators are favoring New Zealand dollar longs with both positive momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.