- U.K. Nationwide House Prices
- Japanese Industrial Production
- French Consumer Confidence Indicator
- U.S. Personal Spending
- Japanese Workersâ," Household Spending
- National Australia Bank's December Business Survey
U.K. Nationwide House Prices (JAN) (Scheduled For Release Jan 30-31)
Consensus: 0.5% (MoM); 3.3% (YoY)
Previous: 0.5% (MoM); 3.0% (YoY)
Outlook: Nationwide housing prices in the U.K. are expected to rise by 0.5 percent for the month of Januaryâ,”the fifth consecutive month of increasing prices. Higher prices in January will solidify the property marketâ,"s rebound from a weak year in 2005. The outlook for 2006 appears to be more optimistic as nearly 80 percent of homebuyers have expressed expectations for house prices to continue to increase. Only 15 percent of those surveyed at the U.Kâ,"s Homebuyer Show felt that property values will fall in the coming year. Strong sentiment regarding increasing house prices is likely to push prices higher in January, however at a measured pace. The rate of price increase is expected to remain unchanged from December as the number of mortgage approvals issued dropped nearly 30 percent over the month.
Previous: House prices in the U.K.â,"s $6 trillion property market posted a gain of 0.5 percent in the month of December as the average cost of a home increased to 157,250 GBP. This was a 3 percent increase from the same time the previous year. Until the Bank of Englandâ,"s interest rate cut in August of 2005, house prices were growing at their slowest pace in 13 years. Following the rate cut, mortgage lending activity increased significantly in contrast to the first half on the year. As banks increased lending towards the end of the year, builders began to report increased demand for new home purchases. Some builders witnessed a 25 percent drop in the number of cancellations registered for new home development projects.
Japanese Industrial Production (DEC P) (23:50 GMT; 18:50 EST)
Consensus: 1.8% (MoM); 4.4% (YoY)
Previous: 1.5% (MoM); 3.4% (YoY)
Outlook: Industrial production in the worldâ,"s second largest economy is expected to add to its gains in December. The predicted 1.8 percent increase will add another month of increased production to a string of four, solidifying thoughts that the end of 2005 may have marked the beginning of Japanâ,"s economic recovery. Along with the service industry activity index, industrial production is regarded as a major indicator of growth in Japanese GDP. In the past, industrial expansion in Japan has relied on foreign demand. However, the growth spurt that is expected to continue into December and onwards to 2006 is accompanied not only by more exports, but by increased retail sales and consumer prices. This suggests that domestic consumption is strengthening hand in hand with increased production, which is of utmost importance to Japanâ,"s economic recovery and the tightening of the Bank of Japanâ,"s monetary policy.
Previous: In November 2005, Japan saw a 1.5 percent increase from the previous month in the volume of industrial goods produced. This was the fourth straight monthly rise in industrial production. Throughout 2005, industrial inventory ratios were consistently higher than the previous year. The fact that manufacturers continued to increase production to add to existing inventory implies strong industrial product demand. Producers have maintained hefty inventory levels in crude steel, metal cutting machinery, electronic parts, glass products and a number of processed food products. Interestingly, heavy production continued in these areas to maintain these inventories as producers sought to meet increased levels of domestic consumption.
French Consumer Confidence Indicator (JAN) (7:50 GMT, 2:50 EST)
Consensus: -29
Previous: -30
Outlook: Confidence amongst French consumers should have risen in January according to a median estimate of economists. After Novemberâ,"s lowest consumer confidence on record, the past two months of positive sentiment have shown signs of improvement for France. Consumers are optimistic about decreases in unemployment, down to 9.6 percent from this yearâ,"s peak of 10.2 percent in May, as well as lower prices from dropping fuel costs, leaving them with more to spend. If the consumer confidence indicator reports favorably as expected it will foreshadow a growth in consumer spending and overall economic expansion in the country.
Previous: High consumer confidence in December should boost spending for France in coming months. Consumer sentiment last month rose to -30 from Novemberâ,"s record low of -33. The sub-index measuring consumerâ,"s views on their personal financial situation rose to -7 from -11. Optimism amongst French consumers about the overall economic situation should translate to increases in spending and motivate economic growth. Lower costs, coupled with steady declines in unemployment are leaving the French consumer with more money in their pocket, and higher confidence to spend it.
U.S. Personal Spending (DEC) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.7%
Previous: 0.3%
Outlook: Personal spending in the U.S. is expected to increase by 0.7% in December, a significant rise from the 0.3% recorded last month. Falling gasoline and energy prices most likely left consumers with more money in their wallets, resulting in accelerated expenditures and improved sentiment. This kind of optimism was evidenced in last weekâ,"s University of Michigan Confidence Index, which rose to 93.2 on improving wages and a strengthening job market. Contrastingly, last monthâ,"s retail sales data indicated that consumer spending has been somewhat lackluster, posting a 0.7% gain that fell short of the 0.9% consensus. While a weak GDP reading of 1.1% has called further Fed tightening into serious question, strong manufacturing and corporate spending continue to buoy the economy. With market speculators already pricing in a quarter point rate hike at next weekâ,"s meeting, a surprise to the upside in personal spending may lend support to 4.75% in the coming months.
Previous: Novemberâ,"s personal spending numbers increased 0.3%, just slightly higher than the previous monthâ,"s rise of 0.2%. Although U.S. consumers took a hit at the gas pump after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita ripped through the Gulf Coast this summer, they have since bounced back with resilience as commodity prices continue to ease. Evidently, falling unemployment rates and better than expected wage increases have also helped to spur consumer spending. If corporate spending and investment continues to bolster the labor market, it seems very plausible that personal expenditures will garner additional momentum. Future upticks in spending are likely to result in further monetary tightening, as the Federal Reserve continues its fight against rising inflation.
Japanese Workersâ," Household Spending (MoM) (DEC) (23:30 GMT, 18:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.4%
Previous: -0.7%
Outlook: Workersâ," household spending is expected to rise from Novemberâ,"s decline by 0.4 percent adding to several reports that have showed Japanâ,"s economy well on its way to recovery. Consumer prices have recently climbed 0.1 percent annually while retail sales rose 0.8 percent since November. With the rising prices, corporations are more likely to profit leading to increasing wages and employment fueling the economy, which looks to be expanding at the fastest pace in 5 years. Additionally, workers are more likely to resume spending habits when confidence in job security rises. Should a turnaround occur in workersâ," household spending, Japan looks to continue on its path of economic expansion and prompt further speculation of a hike in interest rates.
Previous: Declining 0.7 percent in November, household spending figures disappointed the market as the Bank of Japan had been looking for consistent signs of economic growth. Shifts of the labor market likely accounted for some of the decline seen in last monthâ,"s figures. Although unemployment rose 0.1 percent to 4.6 percent, the job-to-applicant ratio increased to 0.99, the highest since 1992, indicative of the rise in job searches as people left current careers to explore higher paying ones. Furthermore, the number of people who had no intention in finding work dropped 80,000 from last year. From the bottom up, as the employment situation in Japan improves, household spending will naturally rise. To encourage consumer spending in the 2nd largest economy, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at zero during their last meeting. They have expressed the desire of maintaining their ultra easy monetary policy until the necessary pick up in spending is seen. Constant up ticks in household spending is one of the many factors that the Bank of Japan is looking for before considering any interest rate hikes.
National Australia Bank's Business Survey (DEC) (0:30 GMT; 19:30 EST)
Outlook: Mixed views on the Australian economy is likely to be projected in tomorrowâ,"s National Bank business condition survey. The housing sector has clearly cooled with building approvals remaining steady as house prices declined 1 percent, the largest drop for more than a year. The slowing housing market has put a heavy burden on the economyâ,"s expansion pace, which has slowed 0.2 percent in the third quarter, the slowest in the past year. Nonetheless, consumer prices have risen 0.5 percent while consumer spending remains strong buoyed by growth in wages and employment. Rising commodity prices will also continue to provide support to Australiaâ,"s economy. Given the contrasting economic data, tomorrowâ,"s business survey should offer some insight on the overall trend of Australiaâ,"s economy.
Previous: The business survey done last quarter verified that there was an overall retraction in business conditions and confidence. Consumer confidence was stressed as a reflection of the fall in the underlying demand. However, it seems that business conditions varied among the sectors. The stronger sectors, mining, business, finance, recreation, energy utilities and communication continue to flourish where as weaker sectors, manufacturing, retail, and construction, reportedly faltered. Rising wages in conjunction with higher oil prices pointed to advances in inflation yet unemployment expected to rise towards 6 percent would subsequently refute any inflationary pressures. Accordingly, the survey anticipated the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold interest rates at 5.50 percent unless economic data surprises were to occur. Generally, growth was forecasted to slow to 2.5 percent over the course of 2005 and 2006.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.