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Yen Launches Countermove Against Swiss Franc
By Jamie Saettele | Published  01/31/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Yen Launches Countermove Against Swiss Franc

CAD/JPY - Canadian dollar bulls continued to push the cross higher after CAD/JPY once again broke above the psychologically important 100.00 handle. A subsequent reversal will most likely see Japanese yen longs launch a decisive countermove and push the Loonie longs below the 101.00 figure, a level marked by the 50-day SMA, and with a further move to the downside seeing the cross test the Canadian dollar bids around the psychologically important 100.00 handle 100.00, a level defended by the combination of the 23.6 Fib of the 83.12-105.20 CAD rally and a 20-day SMA. A sustained downside momentum will most likely see CAD/JPY head below 98.88, a level established by the January 24 daily low and most likely target 96.69, a level created by the 38.2 Fib of the 83.12-105.20 CAD rally. Indicators are favoring Japanese Yen longs with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side to maneuver.

CHF/JPY - Swiss Franc traders failed to push the cross toward the recent multi-year highs at 93.44 and once again collapsed below 91.40, a level created by the 23.6 Fib of the 84.83-93.46 CHF rally. As cross resumes its downward momentum, a move below the psychologically important 90.00 handle, a level defended by the combination of the 38.2 Fib of the 84.83-93.46 CHF rally, 20-day and 50-day SMA, will most likely see the CHF/JPY aim for the Swiss Franc bids around 89.14, a level marked by the 50.0 Fib of the 84.83-93.46 CHF rally. A sustained momentum to the downside most likely see the cross head lower and aim for 88.13, a level created by the combination of the 200-day SMA at 88.44 and 61.8 Fib of the 84.83-93.46 CHF rally. Indicators are favoring Japanese Yen longs with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while overbought Stochastic gives yen longs a .chance to retaliate

NZD/JPY - New Zealand dollar bulls continued to bounce in a tight trading range that dominated the price action in the cross since the middle of December. As yen longs reestablish control over the direction of the cross and push NZD/JPY lower, a move below the psychologically important 80.00 handle will most likely see the Kiwi longs retreat below 20-day SMA at 79.33 and target the Kiwi's bids around 78.97, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 70.81-87.09 NZD rally and is further reinforced by the 200-day SMA at 78.57. A further move to the downside will most likely see the NZD/JPY head lower and aim for the New Zealand dollar bids around 77.04, a key 61.8 Fib of the 70.81-87.09 NZD rally. A sustained momentum on the part of the yen longs will most likely see the NZD/JPY test potential support around 75.17; a level established by the July 13 daily low and is a gateway to the psychologically important 75.00 handle. Indicators are favoring Japanese Yen longs with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 30.76 signals an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.