The Wagner Daily ETF Report For September 9 |
By Deron Wagner |
Published
09/9/2013
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Stocks
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Unrated
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The Wagner Daily ETF Report For September 9
With the stock market yet to produce an official "buy" signal in our rule-based market timing model (which is currently in "neutral" mode), traders who lack conviction on the long side may find it difficult to hold onto a long position when there is a short-term shakeout in the market.
This is why it is important to always "plan your trades, and trade your plan."
Most of us are guilty of an impulse trade every once in a while; but for short to intermediate-term swing traders, this should not become a habit.
Getting in and out of positions quickly, based on short-term intraday moves, is a good warning sign of overtrading (equivalent to churning your own account). Whenever you find this is happening to you, it is best to take a short break from trading to clear your mind.
Today's key mini lesson on trading psychology aside, let's recap the chart patterns of a few ETFs we are currently holding in the Wagner Daily newsletter.
Last Friday, we added shares to our existing long position in Guggenheim Solar ETF ($TAN), after it cleared the highs of a six-week trading range on strong volume earlier in the week:
As you can see, there isn't much resistance on the weekly chart. As long as $TAN holds support from the rising 10-week MA and weekly uptrend line, it should eventually hit the $36-$38 area.
Although the added shares haven't gone anywhere yet, we are presently showing an unrealized share price gain of 22.6% since our original July 2 buy entry (click here to learn why we originally bought $TAN). We will soon start trailing a protective stop higher to lock in gains along the way (with anticipated target of the $36 to $38 area - roughly a 50% gain).
We added to our exiting position in $USO two weeks ago, on a continuation breakout above $38.50. However, the breakout failed to stick and pulled back in before finding support at the rising 20-day EMA:
On false breakouts, strong stocks or ETFs should bounce back quickly after the initial shakeout has run its course (typically within 3-6 days).
This is exactly what what happened in $USO last week, as it sold off to the 20-day EMA in four sessions, then closed closed back above the 38.60 level last Friday (September 6):
Additionally, we just added to our existing position in First Trust Natural Gas Fund ($FCG), which also broke out above key resistance on its weekly chart. Higher volume confirmed the move. Stay tuned for further analysis of $FCG in the coming days.
Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Trader of both Morpheus Capital LP, a U.S. hedge fund, and MorpheusTrading.com, a trader education firm.
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