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Dollar Consolidates Gains in Sideways Action
By Jamie Saettele | Published  02/7/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Dollar Consolidates Gains in Sideways Action

EUR/USD - Euro bulls remained below the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a level established by the 38.2 Fib 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally, as the pair stalled around 1.1985, a level marked by the 50-day SMA. A further move below the 1.1900 figure will most likely see greenback traders push the pair lower and test the euro's bids around 1.1865, a 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. A sustained momentum will most likely see the pair extend its decline and target the single currency bids around 1.1778, a level created by the December 30 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair extend its decline below the 1.1700 figure and target the euro's bids around 1.1639, a level established by 2005 low which currently acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.1500 handle. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD, while oversold Stochastic gives the single currency longs a chance to retaliate.

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs managed to push back the advancing greenback longs as pair fell back below the 119.00 figure. As dollar bulls consolidate recent gains, a move to the upside will most likely see the pair head above 119.00 figure and with a sustained momentum target 119.93, a level established by November 28 daily high, which acts as a gateway toward the psychologically important 120.00 figure. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair gain further upside momentum and with a break above the psychologically important 120.00 handle, most likely aiming for 121.39, a level defended by the 2005 High and a start of the previous anti-dollar rally. A move following the breakout will most likely see the pair extend its gains toward 123.25, a level established by the November 25, 2002 daily high. Indicators are mixed with positive momentum indicator above the zero line and MACD below the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 28.59, signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic adds to the trending outlook.

GBP/USD - British pound longs gave up the psychologically important 1.7500 handle like it did not exist as pair broke below the 50-day SMA at 1.7560. A further move to the downside most likely see the dollar traders push the pair below and with collapse of cable bids around 1.7487, a level marked by December 2 daily high, seeing the GBP/USD retreat further and take on pound bids around 1.7393, a 23.6 Fib of the 1.8500-1.7048 USD rally. A further collapse of the sterling defenses will most likely see the dollar longs extend their decline below the 1.7200 figure and target cable defenses around 1.7188, a level established by the January 3 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair aim for 1.7048, a level defended by the November 11 daily low, breaking of which will most likely see the pair gain further downside momentum and break below the psychologically important 1.7000 handle. Indicators are favoring cable longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give the pair enough room to maneuver.

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc bulls continued to keep the advancing dollar bulls at bay as pair once again test offers above the psychologically important 1.3000 handle with the price action being capped by the 1.3037, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2240-1.3285 USD rally. As greenback longs push their way further above the Swissie's offers 1.3201, a level established by December 30 daily high, a sustained move on the part of the dollar traders will most likely see USD/CHF continue to gain further ground and take on the Swissie offers around 1.3285, a level established by the 2005 high. A break above the range's high will most likely see the pair aim for the next psychologically important 1.3500 handle. Indicators are mixed with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD, while overbought Stochastic gives Swiss Franc bulls a chance to retaliate.
 
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar traders continued to keep the pair below the psychologically important 1.1500 figure as price action remained in a sideways range. As Loonie longs resume their advance, a move below 1.1400 will most likely signal a start of another major USD/CAD rally and most likely see the pair extend its decline below 1.1300 figure and target potential support at 1.1249, a level marked by the 1.00 Fib Extension of the Nov-Dec CAD rally. A further move on the part of the Loonie longs will most likely see the USD/CAD extend its decline toward the psychologically important 1.1000 handle, a level defended by the 1.382 Fib Extension of the Nov-Dec CAD rally at 1.1040. A sustained momentum on the part of the Canadian dollar longs will most likely see the greenback longs retreat below the psychologically important 1.1000 handle and mount defense around 1.0910, a level marked by the 1.618 Fib Extension of the Nov-Dec CAD rally. Indicators are favoring Canadian dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the greenback longs a chance to retaliate.

AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls tumbled like a rock after giving up the psychologically important .7500 handle. A sustained break below .7437, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally will most likely see AUD/USD head lower and with a move below the 7400 figure test the Australian dollar bids around.7362, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the .7798-.7236 USD rally. A further move on the part of the US dollar traders will most likely see the pair tumble further and aim for the bids around .7321, a level created by the November 24 daily low. A further advance on the part of greenback longs will most likely see the pair collapse below .7300 figure and target Aussie bids around .7234, a level defended by the December 27 daily low.  Indicators are diverging with negative momentum indicator diverging from positive MACD, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar continued to tread in a tight trading range as the price action remained above the .6800 figure. A reversal from the current levels will most likely see the greenback bulls push the pair below the .6800 level and test the New Zealand dollar bids around .6794 a level established by the January 31 daily low. A further move on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see NZD/USD test extend its decline toward .6690, a level defended by the 50.0 Fib of the .5914-.7466 NZD rally, with a further break to the downside aiming for New Zealand dollar bids around .6615, a level marked by the July 19, 2004 daily high, which is also acting as a gateway toward the psychologically important .6500 handle. Indicators are favoring US dollar longs with both negative momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.