Good morning! The market saw a fairly active session on Tuesday, in part due to strong earnings from Disney (DIS) and declining crude-oil prices. Those weren't enough to hold up the market overall, however, and after some initial buying for the first 15-30 minutes of the day, the sellers again took the reins.
The market ran into its first main support level with the 10:45 ET reversal period. The action was about average and took the indices back into the opening range. By taking back more than half the losses on the day, it pushed the market into a trading range over noon and set up the prior lows to serve as support once more. These hit around 12:15 ET. At that point the market again corrected. This time around it held the lows of the day, however, forming a base and a larger reverse cup with handle on the 5 and 15 minute charts. That short pattern triggered at about the 13:00 ET reversal period and took the S&P500, Dow Jones Ind. Ave. and NASDAQ Composite all to new intraday lows.
With the stronger daily support in the NASDAQ at that 100 day sma that we have been following, that index had the most difficult time making new lows. The break was relatively minor and that daily support continued to hold. The S&P500 and Dow had little to hold them up, so they were able to put in equal move selloffs as compared to the prior 5 minute drops off 11:30 ET highs on the 5 minute charts. The selling intraday stalled at that equal move support and the stronger test of the daily NASDAQ support.
Initially the market moved slowly off the early afternoon lows. A pop just prior to 14:30 ET back into the 15 minute 20 sma resistance helped change the pace in the market. While the indices were still favoring a bear flag on the 5 minute charts, that puncture of the 5 minute 20 sma meant higher odds that new lows would not be very significant and that a 2B, a form of double bottom with a slightly lower low, would be more likely. This occurred in both the S&P500 and Dow, but the stronger support on the NASDAQ helped it hold the earlier lows.
Heading into Wednesday the NASDAQ again looks like it will try to bounce a bit into the open after rounding off at lows intraday on Tuesday along the 100 day sma. The S&P500 and Dow still have more room to move lower before they hit stronger support, however, so I would found mainly on intraday activity for new positions with swingtrades still favoring moves lower overall.
Economic Reports and Events
Feb. 08: Crude Inventories 02/03 (10:30 am)
Feb. 09: Initial Claims 02/04 (8:30 am), Wholesale Inventories for Dec (10:00 am)
Feb. 10: Trade Balance for Dec (8:30 am), Treasury Budget for Jan (2:00 pm)
Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Feb. 08: AKAM (?), ALVR (B), AMKR (A), APPB (A), RMK (B), ARI (A), ARRS (A), AUO (?), AVNX (A), ACLS (A), CI (?), DF (B), DO (?), EDMC (A), EDS (A), ENER (A), ERES (A), FNF (A), FLIR (B), GGB (B), GSK (07:00 am ET), GRP (B), IACI (B), MVK (A), MOGN (?), MPS (B), NFG (A), NWS (A), PEP (B), PXD (B), PRU (A), QSFT (?), RAI (?), SBGI (B), SNWL (A), DTV (B), WFMI (A), WSH (A), XTO (?)
Feb 09: AET (B), AG (?), AW (A), AMLN (A), ADI (A), AOC (A), AIV (B), AIZ (B), ALV (06:00 am ET), AN (B), BWA (?), BORL (?), BYD (A), BG (B), CPST (A), CEM (A), CCE (B), CTSH (B), ELNK (07:00 am ET), HGSI (B), LGF (A), MAR (B), MBI (B), MFE (?), MET (A), NFX (B), NFI (A), OSUR (A), PNRA (A), SKYW (?), TELK (?), TRA (?), TQNT (A), TRZ (B), UNTD (A), UTSI (A)
Feb 10: AU (?), ACI (B), CHB (B), CBB (B), CVH (?), ECL (B), IIJI (?), VC (B)
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.
Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.